Hydrogen distribution bottleneck putting net zero targets at risk - Heriot-Watt University research
“Distribution requires massive pipeline networks and liquefaction plants that need billions in capital investment” – Dr David Dekker, lead author
A “critical bottleneck” in hydrogen distribution is jeopardising billions in clean energy investment and putting net zero targets at risk, new research suggests.
The study from Edinburgh Business School at Heriot-Watt University reveals that while hydrogen production, storage and fuel cell technologies are advancing rapidly, the associated distribution infrastructure is developing at half the speed, creating a major bottleneck.
The findings are seen as an important milestone in recognising that, while other hydrogen technologies improve and costs fall, distribution expenses could take up a large share of hydrogen system budgets, significantly limiting overall efficiency and growth of the sector.
Researchers analysed some 777,000 patents and 1.3 million citations spanning decades of hydrogen technology development, revealing clear differences in progress across the system.
Dr David Dekker, a research fellow at Edinburgh Business School and the paper’s lead author, said: “Distribution will become the dominant cost in any hydrogen system. Even as we get better at producing and using hydrogen, getting it where it’s needed stays expensive.
“The problem is structural,” he added. “Distribution requires massive pipeline networks and liquefaction plants that need billions in capital investment. Safety regulations and permitting processes are complex, so progress is slow.
“Most distribution infrastructure sits with a handful of major companies. They tend to share less knowledge than innovators in other hydrogen fields. In capital-intensive sectors where competitive advantage matters, companies are far less likely to publish innovations openly. This slows progress across the entire sector.”
The peer-reviewed research work was supported by UKRI ISCF Industrial Challenge through the UK Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre.
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Professor Dimitris Christopoulos, who co-authored the findings and is director of research for the Edinburgh Business School and Heriot-Watt University’s school of social science, said: “We cannot have a hydrogen economy without the infrastructure to move it around. Right now, that is the fundamental missing piece.
“The 2015 Paris Agreement requires rapid scaling of clean energy technologies, but infrastructure bottlenecks could undermine major investment programmes. The question now is whether policymakers and industry will act before distribution costs make hydrogen uncompetitive.”
The findings reveal where the hydrogen system is most vulnerable, showcasing that pipes, terminals and liquefaction plants needed to move hydrogen safely and affordably are lagging behind.
Experts said this matters because distribution is what links the entire hydrogen system together. Without it, production stays concentrated near manufacturing sites.
Professor Mercedes Maroto-Valer, who leads the UK Industrial Decarbonisation Research and Innovation Centre (IDRIC), said: “As the BBC recently reported on Germany’s green hydrogen industry, hydrogen faces a classic chicken-and-egg problem: industry won’t commit at scale without pipelines, terminals and reliable delivery, but those networks won’t be built at scale without firm industrial demand.
“What this new Heriot-Watt research adds is hard evidence that distribution innovation moves much more slowly than the rest of the hydrogen system, so without targeted action to de-risk infrastructure, the distribution costs and uncertainty will keep holding the market back.”
The paper was published in Sustainable Futures.
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