Scots keep on spending ahead of critical ‘golden quarter’ for retailers
“With inflation still increasing and little sign of the long-promised uplift in economic growth as much pressure as ever will fall on strong trading over the crucial Christmas period” – Ewan MacDonald-Russell, SRC
Scotland’s retailers have notched up their third successive month of positive sales, according to new figures, as consumer spending remains resilient in the face of cost-of-living pressures.
Industry leaders welcomed news of the improving picture ahead of the crucial festive trading period but warned that the sector continued to face a number of challenges.
Releasing its latest retail sales monitor, the Scottish Retail Consortium (SRC) said total sales in Scotland increased by 1.3 per cent last month, compared with September 2024. This was above both the three-month average increase of 0.9 per cent and the 12-month average rise of 0.5 per cent.
However, adjusted for the effects of inflation, there was a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 per cent in sales.
Ewan MacDonald-Russell, deputy head of the SRC, said: “Retail sales rose in line with shop price inflation in September as shoppers kept a canny eye on their finances. This is the third successive month of positive improving retail sales and the best monthly figure since April and hopefully signals some appetite from consumers ahead of the crucial ‘golden trading quarter’ starting in October.”
He noted that furniture sales had performed well across the month, alongside the “strong” categories of gaming, health and beauty, and toys. In contrast, fashion lines struggled as the combination of mild weather and Storm Amy deterred high street shoppers from updating their wardrobes.
MacDonald-Russell added: “The tough truth is retailers are having to run very fast just to keep pace with the very significant public policy costs imposed on them in last year’s UK and Scottish Budgets. With inflation still increasing and little sign of the long-promised uplift in economic growth as much pressure as ever will fall on strong trading over the crucial Christmas period.”
Measured on a like-for-like basis, which strips out store openings, closures and changes in selling space, sales nudged up 0.5 per cent last month compared with September 2024.
Total food sales by value increased by 1.1 per cent, year on year, while total non-food sales were up by 1.4 per cent. Adjusted for the effect of online trading, non-food sales in Scotland increased by 1.8 per cent.
Linda Ellett, UK head of consumer, retail and leisure, at KPMG, which helps compile the monthly report, said: “Overall sales grew in September, driven largely by household goods and increased mobile phone sales, as prominent brands launched new models. However, non-food sales are only growing by around 1.7 per cent on average over the last quarter in Scotland, indicating that spending continues to be very targeted as consumers remain cautious.
“As we enter the golden quarter for the sector, retailers are planning product ranges and promotions to try and increase that rate of sales growth,” she added.
The Scottish Retail Consortium this week urged the Chancellor to spend less rather than tax more ahead of her autumn Budget on November 26.
The group’s director David Lonsdale said: “The focus of the Budget ought to be on spending restraint rather than further tax rises on retailers which could stymie economic recovery and keep shop prices higher for longer.”
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