Will a £100m black hole from falling international student numbers risk university courses and jobs?

A new dossier of evidence sent to MSPs contains a caveat that should alarm decision-makers about the true scale of the pressures facing Scotland’s universities.

Universities Scotland, the representative body for the sector, described its submission to Holyrood’s education committee last week as “the most candid assessment” of the financial situation “we have ever given”.

However, the body said “even now we need to be somewhat circumspect”, because of the fact universities are “actively recruiting and are engaged in multiple partnerships with stakeholders and lenders”.

In short, universities have to be careful not to paint too bleak a picture, or they could risk worsening their predicament. But even with the caveat, the position is clear.

As revealed by The Scotsman on Saturday, a huge downturn in the number of international students on taught postgraduate courses has blown a £100 million hole in the sector’s budget for this year, and it is likely to be worse next year.

The downturn, linked to tighter UK visa rules, has exposed a broken model that relies on fees from foreign students to plug a gap in the funding provided by the Scottish Government to cover its “free tuition” policy for Scots.

“Whilst pressures are manifesting now, the real challenge for universities is not financial year 2025/26, but the three-to-five-year period after that, if we continue on this path”, said Universities Scotland.

The document warns of “very difficult choices ahead for many institutions, if this trajectory continues”.

In practice, this is likely to mean a fresh threat to jobs and courses in some cases. Alastair Sim, the former director of Universities Scotland, said as much in an article for The Scotsman earlier this year.

Aberdeen University, which faced significant doubts over its future a few months ago, already moved to slash modern languages degrees at the end of last year, before this downturn in international students had really taken effect. The university recently announced it had closed a £20m budget gap through a voluntary severance scheme, cutting operating costs, early retirements and new revenues.

Neighbouring Robert Gordon University has also opened a voluntary severance scheme, with up to 220 posts potentially being cut, and it is also planning structural changes to help plug an £18m hole.

The University of the Highlands and Islands, meanwhile, is drawing up plans for a restructure.

Most other universities have been relatively silent on their plans to weather the storm, but few will be expecting to emerge completely unscathed.

Any move towards compulsory redundancies would be hugely controversial, particularly following years of poor industrial relations with staff over pay and conditions, including a bitter marking and assessment boycott last year.

Vice-chancellors across Scotland will have seen the backlash to Aberdeen University’s attempt to cut modern languages degrees last year, and presumably will hope to avoid replicating such a row at their own institutions. But the axe will have to fall somewhere, unless an injection of finance can be found.

The ancient universities are particularly dependent on the dwindling number of international students, while the more modern institutions have been hit hardest by recent Scottish Government funding cuts.

Whatever decisions they take, the number of voices calling for a more sustainable funding model for higher education in Scotland, including a conversation over the future of “free tuition”, is only likely to grow.