As Jackdaw call looms, we can't deny the reality of our demand for oil and gas
Allowing the development of the Jackdaw gas field is a more sound option - environmentally and economically - than relying on foreign imports, writes Professor John Underhill
A doubling of world population over the past fifty years to 8 billion people has been underpinned by and driven energy demand to support growth, create wealth and improvements in quality of life to the point where the inconvenient reality is that four fifths of global total energy needs are met by oil, gas and coal.
That thirst for fossil fuels has led to an inexorable rise in emissions that has driven climate change, impacted weather and led to elevated temperatures and wildfires.
Six countries - China, India, Russia, USA, Brazil and Indonesia - and the EU currently account for over half of global emissions. China accounts for over a quarter of them alone.
Although the UK only accounts for 1 per cent of global emissions it continues to have a high dependency on oil and gas (but no longer coal) to meet around three quarters of our total energy needs.
On our roads, 30 million petrol and diesel vehicles currently remain. Meanwhile, 23 million homes (85% of the UK housing stock) need gas for boilers for hot water, central heating and cooker hobs.
Electricity (power) generation makes up a quarter of our total energy consumption. It used to rely heavily upon coal as its primary source. By irradicating domestic coal from the mix and replacing it with gas, nuclear, hydro and renewables, we have gone from a 97% reliance on fossil fuels for electricity seventy years ago to a situation where renewables can and often do dominate the mix.
Yet despite wind and solar accounting for 36 per cent of our electricity needs last year, gas still accounted for 27 per cent, albeit down from 38 per cent in 2019. Significantly, gas was and continues to be needed for over a half of our electrical baseload on cold, dark and windless winter nights or power for air conditioning on stiflingly hot, still summer ones.
The pivot away from coal has cut our emissions in half since 1990. In doing so, the main sources of our emissions have also shifted significantly. In 1990, the biggest sectoral contributors were industry and electricity supply.
Today, domestic transport, buildings and product use are the largest emitters.
The identification and counting of emissions sources were originally brought in to identify countries with a high carbon footprint and encourage them to tackle the sectors that contribute most to climate change.
One unintended consequence of the way the emissions scorecard is marked, however, is that a country’s total can be reduced by importing products since only those from domestic sources apply.
In other words, we can decarbonise by de-industrialising yet still import the products we use that carry a higher carbon intensity, something that is actually worse for the global climate.
Yet the Committee for Climate Change, an independent public body that advises the UK and devolved governments on cutting greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change, recognises that we will have a need for some oil and gas in 2050 and beyond.
The current high dependency we have on oil and gas underlines the scale of the challenge to transition our energy systems. It is a difficult starting point, and we must face up to the fact that the transformation will take time and be very costly.
Given the need, a decision to allow Jackdaw would recognise its contribution to energy security for the homes and electricity system that are so heavily reliant upon gas.
Its approval would protect jobs, raise tax revenues that could be used for welfare, defence or tackle the cost-of-living crisis, improve our balance of payments, and not draw upon our (very limited) gas storage.
Importantly, the lower carbon intensity of domestic gas production compared to Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) imports – including fracked shale gas from the United States we would otherwise rely upon - would reduce emissions and hence be better for the global climate.
The reality is the UK is now a minnow culprit in climate change. That does not mean stopping our climate leadership either by influencing high emitter countries or reducing our oil and gas demand, but we should also allow domestic production rather than replacing it with imports that carry a higher carbon intensity while we still have such a need for oil and gas.
Professor John Underhill is the Director for Energy Transition, University of Aberdeen
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