Blair and Brown are aligning on the future of oil and gas - we should listen
Blair and Brown have spoken on the future of energy production in the North Sea and all of us - including prime minister-in-waiting Andy Burnham - should pay attention, writes Ryan Crighton
There was a time in the 1990s when Gordon Brown and Tony Blair were political soulmates. As we all know, the years that followed were a little more complicated.
But they now appear to be on the same page again – and the issue that has brought them back into alignment is the future of the North Sea.
Tony Blair recently questioned whether parts of the net zero debate had become detached from economic and political reality. Now, a report from Our Scottish Future – the think tank founded by Gordon Brown – argues that Britain needs a more pragmatic approach to the North Sea, one that recognises the importance of domestic energy production alongside the growth of offshore wind, hydrogen and carbon capture.
When two former Prime Ministers arrive independently at the same conclusion, it's probably worth paying attention.
What's striking is that these arguments are no longer coming solely from industry. The debate is changing. Increasingly, senior voices from across the political spectrum are recognising that energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation are not competing priorities. They are mutually reinforcing.
For businesses in the North-east of Scotland, none of this is new.
Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce has long-championed an all-energy approach. They recognised that the future of the region did not depend on choosing between oil and gas and renewables, but on harnessing the strengths of both.
That position has not always been fashionable. Yet events are proving it right.
Brown’s report warns that more than 50,000 jobs could be lost if investment continues to decline and projects such as Jackdaw and Rosebank fail to proceed. It argues that remaining reserves and future discoveries should continue to be developed over the next decade, with part of the proceeds helping to fund a wider transformation of the North Sea economy.
The report also highlights a reality that recent geopolitical events have brought into sharp focus the fact that energy security is national security. Britain already imports much of the oil and gas it consumes. Closing down domestic production faster than demand declines does not eliminate our reliance on hydrocarbons, it simply increases our dependence on imports.
The report is correct in its diagnosis that the UK has responded to the two energy crises of 2020s – the war in Ukraine and now the war in the Gulf – by increasing its reliance on imports from the United States, with emissions that are more than three-times higher. It is also correct in its assessment that, given the volatility of US policy, such over-reliance may prove to be unwise.
At the same time, the North Sea offers extraordinary opportunities beyond oil and gas. Offshore wind, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and integrated energy infrastructure all have the potential to create a new generation of industrial success. The skills, supply chains and engineering expertise built over the past half century are precisely the capabilities needed to deliver that future.
This has never been an argument for standing still. Quite the opposite.
Scotland's energy sector has embraced the transition. Companies are investing in offshore wind, carbon capture, hydrogen and clean technologies. But a transition only works if there is something to transition from. The notion that Britain can abandon one industry while simultaneously building another from scratch ignores both economic reality and human nature.
The transition to net zero remains essential. But net zero cannot become synonymous with deindustrialisation.
That is why the prospect of a new Prime Minister presents an opportunity. Andy Burnham has the chance to reset Britain's energy debate and replace false choices with practical solutions.
We do not need to choose between oil and gas and renewables. We need both. We need to accelerate offshore wind, carbon capture and hydrogen, while supporting responsible domestic production through the transition. We need to use every tool available to strengthen energy security, protect jobs and attract investment.
That starts with Jackdaw and Rosebank.
The case for both is compelling. At a time when the UK faces economic uncertainty, growing geopolitical instability and increasing competition for investment, these projects represent an opportunity to deliver jobs, growth, energy security and tax revenues.
More than £3 billion has already been invested in preparing the developments. Together, they are expected to generate over £28 billion in economic activity while supporting thousands of highly skilled jobs across the UK supply chain, from engineering and manufacturing to ports, technology and professional services. They would also provide significant revenues to the Exchequer that can help fund public services and, as Brown advocates, support the wider energy transition.
The strategic case is equally strong. Oil and gas will remain part of the UK's energy mix for decades, even as renewable generation expands. Producing these resources domestically is preferable to importing them from overseas, reducing reliance on volatile international markets while supporting some of the world's highest environmental and regulatory standards. Jackdaw and Rosebank can make a meaningful contribution to domestic energy supply, strengthening resilience at a time when energy security has become a national priority.
After years of regulatory scrutiny and environmental assessment, businesses, workers and communities now need certainty. Timely consent would demonstrate that the UK remains open to investment and committed to responsible development of its domestic energy resources.
An all-energy strategy is not a compromise between competing visions. It is the most credible route to achieving net zero, strengthening energy security and securing economic growth.
And if Gordon Brown and Tony Blair can agree on that, perhaps our next Prime Minister can too.
Ryan Crighton is a Senior Partner at True North Advisors and Policy Director at Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce.
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