Donald Trump’s stock as global poster boy for hard right looks set to plunge – Martin Roche
Donald Trump would be weakened by defeat in the midterm elections and could lash out in ways that make America even more angry and polarised
Donald Trump is a master of surprise and contradiction. We’ve grown familiar with his roller-coaster style of government. Tariffs are imposed then revoked. Military Armageddon is proposed then seemingly forgotten. He insults allies then asks for their support.
In 2024, he told voters that the era of America entering foreign conflicts was over, only to go on to bomb Nigeria, Venezuela, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Iran.
For the first two years of his second presidency, Trump has been unassailable, backed by Republican majorities in the US Senate and the House of Representatives. That may be about to change.
US ‘on wrong track’
America goes to the midterm polls on November 3. It will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives, across the 50 US states. Just over a third of the 100 seats in the US Senate, across 35 states, are being fought.
The midterms have come to be seen as a measure of the popularity of the president of the day, so the world will be watching, not only for possible change of control of the House and Senate, but also the size of the popular vote for each of the big two parties and the places Trump’s Republicans may lose.
In a voter survey in mid-September, The New York Times found that 59 per cent of people thought “America is on the wrong track”, with 58 per cent disapproving of Trump’s management of the country. Forty-eight per cent thought the economy was “poor”. The poll gave the Democrats a 9 per cent lead.
Consistent polling suggests the Democrats will take control of the House. Winning the Senate is harder. For a majority of one, the Democrats must hold all their 12 Senate seats being contested and capture four Republican ones.
READ MORE: With Donald Trump's army of M16-toting geese set to enforce new name for Atlantic, what's next?
Trump’s ‘home state’ may go Democrat
If voters behave as the latest surveys suggest, the Democrats will secure Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Alaska. Even Florida – often seen as a ‘home state’ for Trump, because of his property at Mar-a-Lago – could fall to the Democrats. At present, the Florida candidates are neck and neck on 45 per cent. Seven per cent of Floridians are yet to decide where to put their vote.
Trump’s offer to give every American $5,000 if the Republicans win the midterms seems to have cut little ice with voters. But it might be enough to tip the balance in his favour in a few states.
Across the globe, governments and financial markets are trying to work out what Trump will say and do if the elections go badly for him. It’s a fair bet he’ll assert they were corrupt and that the Republicans are the real winners.
Washington is alive with rumours that Cuba is next for invasion by US troops, possibly even before the November elections. It would certainly be a distraction.
As much of his unpopularity is related to the war against Iran and the 40 per cent rise in US petrol prices caused by the conflict, the president could decide to unleash all the power of America’s conventional military capability to bring down the Tehran regime and end the war. But who knows what he will do? We can only speculate.
READ MORE: With far-right on the rise again in Germany, we should remember Winston Churchill's wise words
Impeachment looms
What is far less speculative is that if the Republicans lose one or both houses of Congress, Trump will be in for a hard time. He’s likely to face investigations into many aspects of his administration. His chosen appointees to top government jobs could be rejected by the Senate, his legislative programme delayed or blocked.
Either the House or Senate could move to impeach Trump, Vice-President JD Vance or Defence Secretary Pete Hesgeth. A majority of one is enough to secure an impeachment in the House. However, a two-thirds majority is needed to find a person guilty and remove them from office, so Trump and his senior team are unlikely to be forced out of office.
The political fireworks from House or Senate investigations will be great. All the grievances about Trump’s administration face weeks and months of public scrutiny. Every contentious action waits to be dissected and examined with microscopic intensity.
Trump’s accusers will cite breaches of the US Constitution, and allegations of using the office of president for personal gain, incompetence in launching military action against Iran and acting against America’s interests by threatening Canada, undermining Nato and the Western alliance. No president in US history has had so many charges of alleged wrongdoing waged against them.
Rancid and bitter
The political atmosphere in Washington has been torrid and divisive since Trump regained the presidency. After the midterms, it is likely to be more rancid and bitter than ever. That mood will seep out across America. Already a divided country, the US will be more split, more polarised and angrier.
Trump will still have two years in the White House and will remain the most powerful man in the world. His wings may be clipped but that’s unlikely to stop him adopting policy on the hoof, delivering knee-jerk responses to events, criticising other world leaders, promoting his family’s financial interests or ordering military attacks on foreign nations.
Nonetheless, Trump will be a weaker president. His position as poster boy for many in the hard right globally will be diminished. His voice will carry less authority. He will dislike his status being reduced, so may be inclined to lash out recklessly.
All the conditions will be in place for further political instability in America. Expect the unexpected – Trump might even win the midterms – and expect some of it to be gravely worrying.
Martin Roche had a career in international public relations. He is retired and is a writer.
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.