Euan McColm: Anas Sarwar’s dream of ousting John Swinney as first minister all but dead

For a brief moment, the idea that he might one day become First Minister seemed not only plausible but likely.

In the early days of his leadership, Scottish Labour’s Anas Sarwar connected with voters once thought lost by his party. Quick in debate and affable in person, Sarwar charmed his way up the opinion polls.

By the time Labour claimed victory in last summer’s General Election, Sarwar looked on course to take the keys to Bute House from John Swinney next May.

But politics is a cruel business.

As 2025 draws to a close, Sarwar’s dream of becoming First Minister is over.

A recent YouGov poll put Scottish Labour in fourth place, behind The SNP, The Greens, and The Liberal Democrats. With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK nipping at Scottish Labour’s heel’s, Sarwar’s immediate fight is to stop his party slipping into a miserable fifth next year.

Without question, Sir Keir Starmer bears some responsibility for Sarwar’s woes. Early decisions, including the announcement, within weeks of the election, of limits on winter fuel payments for pensioners, played terribly in Scotland and fed the enduring SNP narrative that “Westminster” is uniquely cruel.

But Sarwar has made his own mistakes, most notably on the question of women’s rights.

Three years ago, the Scottish Labour leader whipped his MSPs to support then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon’s plan to allow anyone to self-identify into the legally-recognised sex of their choosing.

That reform of the Gender Recognition Act was blocked, in 2023, by Tory Scottish Secretary Alister Jack on the grounds that it was incompatible with the UK-wide Equality Act.

Not only was the self-ID plan unworkable, it was hugely unpopular with voters and, by the time nurse Sandie Peggie’s tribunal case against NHS Fife and trans-identifying doctor Beth Upton (the former subjected her to a disciplinary process after she complained about the presence in a women’s changing room of the latter) had begun in February, Sarwar had decided to reposition his party.

He and his deputy, Dame Jackie Baillie, told the Holyrood Sources podcast that, had they known in December 2022 what they now knew, they would not have supported self-ID.

Sarwar declared his support for Peggie, claiming he had always backed women’s sex-based rights.

This bold approach – the gaslighting of the many feminists, including two female MSPs sacked for refusing to vote for self-ID, who had warned him of the dangers of the policy years ago – went badly for Sarwar.

The Scottish Labour leader had hoped to position himself alongside the majority of voters on the issue of gender but ended up inviting the derision, and even the contempt, of the very feminist groups that had been warning him for years that he was wrong on self-ID.

Sarwar retreated, rather wounded, after messing up his shift on self-ID and, since then, he’s rarely seemed fully present in our politics.

The past year wasn’t without bright moments for Sarwar – Labour’s victory in the Hamilton, Larkhall, and Stonehouse by-election in June was a highlight – but, right now, he’s in a dark place.

There’s nothing Anas Sarwar can do about Sir Keir Starmer. Until, inevitably, members of his cabinet move against him, the Prime Minister will continue to hurt Scottish Labour and help the SNP.

But there are steps Sarwar could take to try to regain some relevance in our national political debate.

On the issue of gender, Sarwar should show some humility and apologise for being late to the campaign to defend women’s rights against the demands of trans activists.

The question of gender will be a significant one during next May’s Holyrood election campaign. While the SNP continues to be split over whether a transwoman is a woman and the Scottish government prepares a court action to defend its “right” to imprison biological males in women’s prisons, the Scottish Labour leader has a political opportunity.

Reform UK will, I am certain, make the SNP’s continued adherence to the tenets of gender ideology a central part of its Holyrood campaign.

Sarwar must be able to answer Reform on this issue.

The Labour MP for East Kilbride, Joani Reid, elected last year in her party’s landslide General Election victory, has marked herself out for an ability to identify – and willingness to discuss – issues of importance that others in her party often prefer to ignore.

Not only has she been consistent in her defence of women’s rights while others bent to the demands of trans activists, Reid has also spoken up on immigration and so-called “grooming gangs” (I think “rape gangs” more accurate).

The progressive class dismisses discussion of these issues as inherently right-wing and, in doing so, leaves them open to exploitation by populists.

Some of Joani Reid’s colleagues could learn from the way in which she approaches supposedly problematic issues.

John Swinney’s government has been deeply unimpressive. Scandal has dogged his administration and the sense that the SNP is out of ideas is overwhelming.

Nonetheless, the nationalists are on course to win their fifth consecutive Holyrood victory.

Continued strong support for independence provides the SNP with a buffer against consequences. While the party remains the one most likely to deliver a second independence referendum, a significant number of Scots are willing to overlook falling standards in schools and an NHS in crisis.

But where is Scottish Labour when it comes to these weaknesses in the SNP’s programme?

Sarwar’s chances of becoming First Minister remain incredibly slender but he might yet be able to see off the total humiliation of his party next year.

As he moves into an important election year, Anas Sarwar must start approaching voters as they are, not as his more radical advisers might hope them to be.

If he establishes a clear – and popular – position in favour of women’s rights and against the demands of activists, the Scottish Labour leader may find voters willing to listen to him on other matters.