Why Europe must stop appeasing Donald Trump and prepare for the end of Nato
In a Trumpian world where territorial ambition and coercive politics have returned to Europe’s doorstep, Britain cannot stand alone
The kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro – in apparent violation of international law – has revived fears that Washington is re-embracing an aggressive Monroe Doctrine, the 19th-century US foreign-policy principle that declared the Western Hemisphere an exclusive American zone of influence and intervention.
But the shock reverberated beyond Latin America, fuelling concerns across Europe that Greenland might be next. Recent statements by Donald Trump – the recipient of Fifa’s ‘Peace Prize’, who harbours ambitions for the real one – saw European leaders rally to reject any such designs.
Denmark’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, warned a US invasion of Greenland – Danish territory covered by Nato’s collective defence – would mean the end of the alliance.
Such statements strike at the heart of European security. Nato has been on life support since last summer, when Trump cast doubt on his commitment to the central pillar of the alliance’s deterrence – the promise that an attack on one is an attack on all.
No longer a reliable ally
Like others before him, Trump is drawn to foreign policy adventures to distract from domestic issues. Whether or not he seriously intends to invade Greenland, the fact that such scenarios are openly discussed deepens European fears about a shifting world order, the fragility of the transatlantic partnership, and the future of European security.
European weakness has concrete consequences. In reality, there is little Europeans could do if Trump were to invade Greenland. But this crisis forces a realisation that is uncomfortable yet unavoidable: the US is no longer a reliable ally.
Trump’s Greenland rhetoric, and his attempts to undermine European governments and democratic norms, point in this direction. Europe, including the UK, must therefore plan for a future without – or potentially even against – Trump’s America. What, then, should Europeans do?
Europe must ‘de-risk’ its dependence on US
First, Europe needs a new political strategy: unity, self-reliance and non-appeasement. For decades, it’s been a truism that European states must be united and strategically self-reliant. Today it is imperative.
Europeans must recognise that the transatlantic alliance as a dependable framework is dead. This does not mean permanent confrontation with Washington, but it does require emancipation from the US. As with China, Europe should cooperate where interests coincide, de-risk by reducing critical dependencies, and acknowledge the US can be a potential adversary in some areas.
This new strategy requires an end to appeasement and the reflex of avoiding confrontation at all costs. Europe must set clear red lines – and be willing to defend them. Greenland is one such case.
Trump’s approach rests on the assumption that Europe is divided, risk-averse and ultimately dependent on American power. Only sustained unity, resolve and credible enforcement of European red lines can disprove that assumption.
READ MORE: Why Donald Trump's Venezuela raid raises alarming questions about US intentions towards Greenland
European tech sector a priority
Second, Europe must seek strategic autonomy and be prepared to retaliate. Europe is a crucial market for US tech firms, and that leverage should be used if Washington escalates – over Greenland or elsewhere.
Aggressive enforcement of the Digital Markets Act and Digital Services Act, competition cases against dominant platforms, stricter compliance on data transfers under data protection regulations, and tougher environmental and tax enforcement are all available tools.
Should the US hike tariffs again, Europe can contemplate restrictions on American service providers in return. Europe must also reduce its exposure to US technological dominance. The European Commission – ideally with UK participation – should fund and scale European providers in cloud computing, AI and digital infrastructure.
Strategic autonomy applies to technology no less than defence: otherwise US companies hang like the sword of Damocles over European policy.
A European nuclear umbrella
Third, Europe must prepare for a post-Nato order by building credible military capabilities. Europeans should establish a permanent, operational military headquarters and place rapid reaction forces under its command, with full UK involvement.
Eurocorps, EU Battlegroups or the UK–French Combined Joint Expeditionary Force could provide the nucleus, while European states must harmonise legal frameworks, logistics and infrastructure. Joint procurement and an expanded, coordinated military-industrial base are essential, particularly for ammunition, air defence, drones and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance assets.
As for the nuclear umbrella, France’s – and ideally the UK’s – nuclear forces should be integrated into a broader European framework, providing credible deterrence against hostile powers.
Europe faces a narrow window to build a security architecture capable of deterring adversaries, especially Russia, which some warn could be in a position to attack by 2029 – even if its difficulties in Ukraine may yet restrain further aggression.
Stronger alliances with Canada, Japan and more
Fourth, Europeans must build coalitions beyond Trump. Where possible, Europeans should bypass the White House and work directly with US states, Congress and American businesses. Distinguishing clearly between the Trump administration and the US public makes it harder for Trump to portray European responses as anti-American.
Globally, Europeans should deepen coordination with partners such as Canada, Japan, South Korea and Australia, while engaging more closely with Brazil, South Africa, India and others to build a credible counterweight to US power and reaffirm commitment to the multilateral, rules-based international order.
Finally, Ukraine is the most immediate test of Europe’s resolve. Trump’s support for Ukraine is highly volatile and remains an important tool of blackmail vis-à-vis Europe. Europeans must therefore be prepared to support Ukraine independently, including by committing forces and resources to uphold an acceptable peace agreement, and demonstrate European security doesn’t hinge on Washington’s whims.
The UK, though no longer in the EU, is in Europe and must play a central role in this post-transatlantic future. That will require far closer alignment with European partners on foreign policy and defence, and ideally deeper economic integration.
In a Trumpian world where territorial ambition and coercive politics have returned to Europe’s doorstep, Britain cannot stand alone. Europe must be united.
If Europe wishes to be a player rather than a pawn on the global chessboard, it must finally accept that strategic emancipation from the US is an urgent necessity.
Dr Bernhard Blumenau is a senior lecturer in international history and politics at the University of St Andrews
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