Owen Polley: Nigel Farage is leading a right wing revolt against Tories who ignored their core voters

​When Nigel Farage announced his decision, last week, to become leader of Reform UK and stand in the general election, he claimed that the campaign needed ‘gingering up’.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (left) was in punchier form in the BBC election debate on Friday than Sunak or Starmer on Tuesday. It is fair to hold to account politicians who claim to be conservative fail to govern by those principles

​That choice of words implied that he sees politics, in part at least, as entertainment.

You can understand why that view might be appealing, if you watched the first television debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer on Tuesday evening.

Admittedly, there were some mildly noteworthy moments during that ITV discussion.

For example, Sunak claimed that a Labour government would raise taxes significantly, if it was voted into office. Although the figures were later challenged, at the time, Starmer said little to contradict that suggestion. Indeed, he barely disputed the Conservative line that his party plans to tax state pensions

While there were a few tetchy moments, the two leaders were thoroughly prepared and the debate was fairly boring. It produced little fresh insight and was unlikely to change voters’ minds, if they already had strong feelings about the election.

Indeed, It was exactly the kind of occasion that would attract the disdain of Mr Farage, who was in punchier form on Friday evening, when the BBC hosted representatives of seven parties.

The Reform UK leader believes that British politics has become too dull and uniform. By this way of thinking, the two main parties offer little hope of meaningful change, so Farage wants to lead a ‘political revolt’, particularly against the Conservatives, who he says have let down their electorate.

That message would seem to have a ready audience. The Tories have disappointed many core supporters, who feel that the party failed to defend British values during unprecedented social changes – allowing immigration to soar, despite promising to cut it dramatically, and failing to effectively counter fashionable but hugely damaging theories on race and gender.

In Northern Ireland, we’ve certainly seen gaps between Conservative rhetoric and reality, which Reform hopes to challenge through its electoral alliance with the TUV. Successive prime ministers promised that an Irish Sea border would never be acceptable, but, when the EU refused to budge on trade barriers, they all eventually capitulated.

Many activists now argue that the Tories need to be routed at this election, so that the right in British politics is completely realigned.

That could involve the Conservative Party having a major rethink about its policies and leadership, after a historic bad result. But some commentators, like the academic Matthew Goodwin, believe a new movement is needed, possibly centred around Reform.

There’s even a campaign among young right-wing activists to ensure that the Tories retain ‘zero seats’. That is clearly a near impossible outcome, but it shows just how disillusioned some of their natural supporters have become with the Conservatives.

The idea that more upheaval is needed, though, is a contentious outlook.

Some people point out, with justification, that politics became too polarised over the past few years. From a Northern Irish perspective, it’s hard to argue that the ructions that followed Brexit left us in a better position than before.

The aftermath of the 2016 referendum confirmed everything that was wrong with the EU, which its critics say is an overbearing monolith, designed to distance people from decision-making and pursue an ever closer union that barely any of its public wants.

While Great Britain largely escaped its clutches, Northern Ireland remains under Brussels’ authority and is now semi-detached from the rest of the UK.

That may be entirely wrong. It may be the result of EU vengefulness, British political cowardice and botched negotiations, but I cannot be the only unionist who wonders ruefully what things would now be like had the Brexit poll never taken place.

Of course, we cannot turn the clock back.

The Irish Sea border has dominated political debate here, but the UK faces other challenges, and some of them could become just as existential. Under Mr Farage, Reform plans to focus on immigration, and it’s difficult to argue with statistics that show the numbers arriving in Britain are unprecedented.

As a country, we’ve shied away from this topic in the past, because the UK is a welcoming place, but it is now changing our society so quickly and in such unpredictable ways, that it is no longer possible to ignore.

Reform is drawing close to the Conservatives in some opinion polls, so pundits have suggested that a kind of reckoning could be coming. That does not mean that Mr Farage’s party will win many seats in parliament, thanks to our first past the post system, but it could do well enough to ensure a heavy Tory defeat.

The revolt on the right, if it does come about, has yet to take a definite shape. Reform UK is an unusual set-up, with some organisational difficulties and a way of looking at the world that is, as yet, difficult to define.

It’s still just about possible that Rishi Sunak will lead the Conservatives to a respectable election result. In that scenario, the party would have major decisions to make on its future, but it could survive in more or less the same form.

Conservatism, in the UK, is supposed to protect our institutions, cherish our history and maintain our traditions, all while accepting that gradual changes will happen. Usually, you would say that conservatism is the antithesis of ideas of ‘revolution’ and ‘revolt’.

What happens, though, when politicians who claim to be conservative fail to govern by those principles? It is absolutely fair that, in those circumstances, they are held to account, but it would be unfortunate if that came at the expense of more destabilising change.