Why Scottish Conservatives splitting from UK party is now a serious proposition

The recent general election – certainly a challenging one for UK Conservatives – threw up some fascinating numbers. From Labour’s 412 MPs with barely a third of the vote to the SNP’s collapse to just nine, the statisticians are still chewing over the results.

While the Scottish Conservatives performed well in retaining five MPs, we also saw our vote share halved. That draws attention to a statistic which concerns me: in Scottish Parliament elections, my party struggles to get above 24 per cent. Even during the years when Ruth Davidson united much of the unionist movement, we still didn’t break that figure.

So talk of a “reset” must really be about how we aim higher. And part of that conversation needs to fully consider whether that requires a different relationship with the UK Conservative party.

The idea of a Scottish Conservative party fully detached from the UK brand was floated in the 2011 leadership contest. There were pros and cons, and ultimately the membership rejected the idea. But, 13 years on, with so much having happened politically, it is surely important that we revisit it as part of the current leadership process.

Currently we are comfortably the second-largest party at Holyrood, with settled and experienced MSPs – impressive people, most of whom boast life, business and social experience far beyond others there. At the 2026 Holyrood election, this team and how we operate and think will be crucial.

During my eight years as an MSP, I’ve observed parties tending to think in silos and adopting a ‘whack-a-mole’ approach to current issues. Short-term solutions and temporary fixes have dominated. Yet there is a worrying lack of deeply considered, long-term, cross-portfolio thinking.

Creating a thriving economy

I believe the Scottish Conservatives must start from the future: a 15-year vision of what a vibrant, prosperous, UK and world-leading Scotland can be. Instead of asking what the individual problems are now and coming up with short-term measures which may or may not address them, ask “what are we trying to achieve, and what does the Scotland that we all want look like?”

From there, we work back from that vision and forensically strategise how to achieve it. For example, by creating a thriving economy, in which young people see a future, entrepreneurs create, and businesses start, grow and prosper – unhindered by hiked taxes, red tape and negative policies.

Let’s remove the rocks from the runway and allow a vibrant economy to fly. This will support healthy public services and ensure the next generation emerges into the workplace with the skills we need.

That vision allows us to crystallise our school curriculum, how colleges and universities should be resourced, and what our skills landscape should be. Which in turn requires an honest and outcome-based conversation regarding the myriad social issues which present so many underlying challenges.

A distinct identity

Only by confronting the challenges faced by so many can we ensure that the environment our young people grow up in is the right one. In time, measures such as these will have positive impacts.

People would undoubtedly be on-side with these ambitions but regrettably such a vision cannot be achieved in the course of a single parliament. We need to persuade the public that a longer-term vision is one worth pursuing, that the Scottish Conservatives are capable of realising it, and we should be given the chance to do so.

Since the election and Douglas Ross’s resignation as leader, many Scottish Conservative MSPs have spoken about the need for a reset, a new identity, indeed a distinct identity. It seems from their pronouncements that there is a consensus for change; the debate seems to be about how much.

Achieving power

Interestingly, none have followed the logical progression of these arguments: some form of Holyrood centre-right party focused solely and exclusively on matters devolved to the Scottish Parliament in which its MSPs sit. In my view, each of the arguments for the status quo, reformed status quo or a separate party have their merits but, as we are yet to hear the case for the latter, let me offer this.

If one accepts the proposition that we start with a vision and work back strategically, the party will have to achieve power in Scotland to deliver it. This has never happened using the current vehicle, despite evidence suggesting the people of Scotland hold similar attitudes to those elsewhere in the UK. Given the statistics and evidence of the Davidson era, many Conservatives feel it is unlikely to.

So, if our focus and vision is the betterment of the people of Scotland, which can only be delivered through holding the power to implement the strategy, it must surely be worth exploring what kind of party can achieve that power to deliver in a devolved context. Otherwise there is a concern we continue doing fundamentally the same thing, while expecting a different result.

This is why the Scottish Conservative leadership contest must take time and involve many different voices, respectfully and carefully examining our preconceptions and fears around whether there is a need for a fundamentally reformed or even distinct Scottish centre-right party, as the most effective way of putting a strong and results-focused MSP cohort in a position to deliver.

Ideas, not personalities

It would be wrong to leave the reasons underlying the Scottish Conservatives’ inability to get power in Holyrood unexamined or for any proposals to be rejected out of hand without scrutiny or evidence. Whoever wins the leadership contest, the focus for the future – the vision – must, in my view, be clear and articulated.

Then the strategies and tactics for delivery can be prosecuted by a team of joined-up, unified MSPs who have debated and stress-tested ideas, not personalities, in the crucible of open and fair competition, and who are fully focused on devolved considerations and solutions.

If the Scottish Conservatives get it right in the next couple of months, it would be the perfect launchpad for Holyrood 2026.

Liam Kerr is a Scottish Conservative MSP for North East Scotland