Scottish Labour's boom or bust campaign - and why it went so disastrously wrong

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The campaign devised by Scottish Labour was boom or bust. And with only 17 MSPs now making up the party’s Holyrood group, the answer is clear: bust.

Throughout the campaign, those pounding the streets were confident that opinion polling was wrong, insisting the data from the doorsteps was telling a different story. Even as polls closed, insiders believed they would gain several seats across the central belt from the SNP.

But, by early Friday afternoon, it was clear that the pollsters were right after all.

Leader Anas Sarwar took the decision to concede early, which caught some by surprise, but strategists knew the game was up because of the boom-or-bust strategy.

The party put all its eggs into the constituency basket, eschewing any kind of campaign for the regional ‘peach ballot’ vote.

There were no colour-related stunts similar to those deployed by the Conservative and the Lib Dems. It was a marked shift from the last two Holyrood campaigns, where a regional list strategy was prioritised. In 2021, even Sarwar’s battle bus was wrapped in peach.

But the Scottish Parliamentary system means you cannot win on the list alone. The only way to be in contention for government is to target a sizeable number of constituencies.

Sarwar and his team therefore deserve at least some praise for aiming to win the keys to Bute House.

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As the post-mortem continues this weekend, the dedicated team around Sarwar will be distraught. They have spent five years focused on getting into government, working long hours and giving their all in pursuit of that goal.

He was surrounded by talented people, bolstered by a healthy bank balance that delivered a relentless digital campaign.

But something clearly went wrong with the data gathering from the doorsteps.

The party’s system was hugely successful in last year’s Hamilton by-election, delivering victory when the pollsters and commentators didn’t expect it. That bred confidence for this election, with Sarwar repeatedly promising journalists that Labour would prove the pundits wrong again.

It also spooked the SNP, which has vastly improved its own internal campaign structure under John Swinney’s steady leadership.

So while Labour rejoiced in Davy Russell’s win last year, what happened in Hamilton – so frequently throughout history a seat that has shaped Scottish politics – ended up being partly responsible for the party’s catastrophic result on Friday.

What worked well in one seat couldn’t be replicated across 38 constituencies at the same time.

Yet while a less ambitious approach may have led to success in areas where the party narrowly lost – such as East Lothian – the responsibility for the size of the SNP’s majorities lies elsewhere: in Downing Street.

There was intense anger towards the UK Labour government among voters.

Scottish Labour tried desperately to drown out that noise, with Sarwar calling for the Prime Minister to resign three months ago. While that left him looking isolated through a Westminster lens, it was a desperate tactic to ensure there was more ‘space’ to focus on devolved issues during the Holyrood campaign.

Sarwar didn’t face questions from the media about Starmer every single day, and activists had a more straightforward response on the doorsteps.

But Scottish Labour’s fortunes cannot simply be untangled from the UK party. That is true as much during the good times – such as the 2024 general election – as it is during the bad times.

Many have tried in the past, from both the far left and the centre, and have failed. Ask any defeated candidate who they blame for Friday’s result, and they will point to Starmer.

That’s why there will be very little demand for Sarwar to stand down.

MPs and MSPs are largely united in hoping that he chooses to remain in place, recognising the energy he brought to the role and the way he has professionalised the party.

Don’t forget, when he took over from Richard Leonard in 2021, the party had made just £250 in fundraising in a full year. That would barely pay for a handful of Facebook videos.

Sarwar knew how the bring in the cash needed to fund a digital operation to flood YouTube with content. It may not have delivered success in this election, but it most certainly could if the political timing were more favourable.

There will be a lot of soul-searching in the weeks and months ahead.

The party has lost some talented MSPs such as Paul O’Kane, Monica Lennon and Martin Whitfield, but gained some new politicians who have bright futures: among them Kath Sangster, Donald MacKinnon, Joe Fagan and Jenny Young.

It must come to terms with the make up of the new Scottish Parliament, and the increased influence of the Scottish Greens and the presence of Reform UK.

And it will have to watch on as the fallout from Friday engulfs Westminster.

There was something of an uneasy truce between the Scottish and UK leadership teams during the campaign, and Starmer even emailed members on Friday evening to say the party owed a “huge debt of gratitude to Anas for the energy he brought to the campaign”.

Remember, this is someone that Sarwar and many other MSPs have said should resign.

Most Scottish Labour MSPs hope that a timetable to Starmer’s departure is laid out, so that the cross-border relationship can be fixed.

If UK Labour soon finds itself consumed by a leadership contest, few would really relish the same happening here. It rarely brings out the best of the party. There are some who will advocate for a formal separation of the Scottish and UK parties, but that would solve little.

Not only would it raise questions about resourcing and what it would mean for Scotland’s Labour MPs, the fortunes are simply too entwined.

Just look at the success of the Scottish Greens, due in no small part to the Zack Polanski effect – even though he leads an entirely separate outfit. Many in Scottish Labour will instead hope that time is now spent on healing – but they may not have that choice.

Alan Roden is the co-founder of Quantum Communications and a former adviser to Anas Sarwar