Threat of second Falklands War shows why global hard-right alliance won’t last – Ian Johnston
Conservative shadow foreign minister warns ‘Argentina’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric’ over the Falklands ‘has no doubt been emboldened’ by Donald Trump
Hard-right populism is an international movement in which adherents from different countries openly support one another – much like old-time socialists once did.
Perhaps the most prominent example in this country is Nigel Farage’s fondness for Donald Trump. Some might think this relationship is a one-way street – what with the difference in power between the two men – but they would be wrong.
Warning that Europe faces the “stark prospect of civilisational erasure”, the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy states openly that “our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory” and notes, with approval, “the growing influence of patriotic European parties”. Given Trump’s closeness to Farage and Hungarian populist Viktor Orban, and US Vice-President JD Vance’s support for the far-right AfD in Germany, it’s obvious who they are talking about.
READ MORE: With Donald Trump's army of M16-toting geese set to enforce new name for Atlantic, what's next?
‘Party of hope and reason’, according to Kremlin
This blurring of the line between hard-right and far-right becomes all the more concerning because of the warm relations between the AfD and Vladimir Putin’s brutal dictatorship. Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev described a recent regional election result in Germany as a “historic win for the pragmatic AfD”, which he has dubbed “the party of hope and reason, co-operation, truth and hope [again] for Germany”.
In contrast, Poland’s centre-right Prime Minister Donald Tusk said bluntly that “in Poland, only idiots and traitors can rejoice at the triumph of the AfD”. When you share an eastern border with Russia and Putin’s drones sometimes test your air defences, the idea of a Moscow-friendly government to your west is a frightening prospect.
Among the myriad of reasons to be worried about the AfD is their attitude towards the Nazis. For example, the leading AfD politician, Ulrich Siegmund, reportedly attends rallies at which someone calls out “Seig” and the audience answers “Mund” – in an obvious reference to the Nazi’s “seig heil” chant. He claims to hear no resemblence.
‘No other path forward’
Another member of this loose affiliation of fellow travellers is Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who recently announced “sanctions” on oil companies and individuals linked to oil works in the Falklands territorial waters. “The Falklands are our future. We need to recover these islands which are nationally relevant. There is no other path forward,” Milei said, in true Trumpian style.
He has good reason to be optimistic with Trump saying he is “reviewing” the US position on the Falklands, which is formally neutral, as a kind of punishment because the UK didn’t back him over his attacks on Iran. Speaking in the House of Lords, the Conservatives’ shadow foreign minister Lord Callanan said that “Argentina’s increasingly aggressive rhetoric in respect of the Falkland Islands has no doubt been emboldened” by the possibility of a change in the Americans’ stance.
The UK government’s position – that sovereignty over the Falklands is “non-negotiable” – is one all true democrats should share, as it is based on the will of the people who live there. In contrast, Argentina’s claim is based on a disputed incident nearly 200 years ago. Virtually every country in the world could go to war over such incidents, a dozen times or more, if they wanted to.
Following the horrors of the First World War, the principle of self-determination, promoted by the then US President Woodrow Wilson, and the ill-fated League of Nations were seen as mechanisms to resolve such disputes peacefully. Clearly, the Second World War demonstrated that this did not work. Given how toothless it has become, the United Nations now appears to be going much the same way as its predecessor.
Trump’s effect on Canadian politics
In place of the once-vaunted international rules-based order is emerging this ‘friends of Trump’ club in a number of different forms, including his so-called Board of Peace. And of course, in such clubs, your standing very much depends on how subservient you are to Trump and his interests.
However, even natural allies cannot always expect favours. The right-wing populist Pierre Poilievre was coasting to election victory in Canada until Trump started talking about turning it into the 51st US state.
On the day of the election itself, Trump bizarrely appeared to suggest Canadians should vote for him, prompting Poilievre to tell him to “stay out of our election... Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will never be the 51st state”. Trump’s intervention transformed the fortunes of the ruling Liberal party and, riding on a wave of Canadian nationalism, Mark Carney became Prime Minister.
My country first
If Farage becomes Prime Minister while Trump or a like-minded successor is in charge, he may also find that British and American nationalisms are at odds with each other, as indeed they might be with other countries with hard-right populist governments.
Such politicians have little choice but to put their country first: Britain first, America first, Germany first etc. If they fail to do so, they look weak and unpatriotic, an image that is difficult for any politician, but catastrophic for a populist.
If Milei thinks he has Trump’s backing, he might make a mistake and go too far over the Falklands. The military junta that launched the 1982 invasion did so in the mistaken belief the UK would not defend the islands. The state of our armed forces today may provide similar encouragement.
A second Falklands War was, until fairly recently, unthinkable. That is no longer the case in part because of Trump. And this is just one dispute in a world that is full of them.
The rise of the new hard-right world order is no replacement for the old one. It is a recipe for chaos and conflict, trade wars and real ones. Only “idiots and traitors” – to the causes of democracy, freedom and peace – can possibly rejoice at its coming.
Comments
Want to join the conversation? Please or to comment on this article.