Why Ruth Davidson can't save the Tories and Keir Starmer can't save himself
As Labour and the Conservatives descend into infighting, Reform UK is picking up new converts
Labour and the Conservatives are both now in a state of civil war. It may seem to some observers and probably most of the public that they are currently in a ‘Phoney War’ period of shadow boxing, which often seems petty, reactionary and without strategic vision.
The truth is we’ve already had that phase. It is now over. The shadow boxing to test reactions and what messages were appealing were tried out at conference fringe meetings by leaking comments to the media or placing posts online.
That’s all been done, with occasional flurries about Wes Streeting bidding for the Labour leadership or speculation about who might replace Kemi Badenoch. In the last few weeks, live munitions have been deployed. The real civil wars are now breaking out.
MPs queuing up to defect to Reform
The steady flow of councillor defections to Reform – from all parties by the way, including those who were formerly in the Green, nationalist, Labour and Conservative parties, has generally gone unreported except in the local areas where they have happened.
The moves by MPs and former MPs have, naturally, gained more publicity but they have been drip-fed so as to maintain the sense of momentum. I have no doubt there are many more lined up and, like paratroopers queuing to bail out from their transport plane, more MPs are just waiting for the green light before they announce their move.
The forced announcement of Robert Jenrick going to Reform – he was bundled out of the Tory aircraft by Badenoch before he could jump – will bring a swell of additional support. To help concentrate people’s minds, those remaining on the plane have been told by Nigel Farage that after the elections on May 7, they will be without a parachute to provide a possible safe landing with Reform.
READ MORE: Reform vows huge income tax cut for Scots costing billions as Offord insists party can remove SNP
Now the evidence is being circulated that the Commissars of Comrade Badenoch are conducting a ‘purge’ of party members who are suspected of fraternising with Reform. An email has surfaced taking loyal party members by surprise, suspending some who have had decades of loyal Tory party membership. They are not told what they are accused of and can only find out if they appeal their case – creating the prospect of a show trial.
That’s how to reduce the Conservative membership in one stroke, even for those who had not considered it. One member revealed he was in the middle of running a Tory election campaign. I expect the tactics of the ducking chair will only convince many waverers to leave.
Tory centrists and the Lib Dems
Two further events have exposed how the Conservatives are collapsing into civil war. Firstly Ruth Davidson, along with former West Midlands Mayor Andy Street, launched a new vehicle to recruit centrists without a political home to join the Conservatives. A rather odd move as that home already exists and is actually called the Liberal Democrats. Indeed, were there not so many Ruth Davidson types in the parliamentary Tory party then the likes of Danny Kruger and Jenrick might have stayed.
This will excite some political commentators in England but is unlikely to butter the parsnips in Scotland. Talented Davidson undoubtedly is, but she ended up taking the Scottish Conservatives down a cul de sac, winning votes not by being especially Conservative but by being unionist.
Davidson is policy averse, recommending motherhood and apple pie but drawing back from providing her recipe. When the questions start to land about specifics, such as defending women’s spaces, and what public spending would she cut to reduce taxes, her answers will reveal if she has changed.
Secondly, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman was unveiled as Farage’s latest recruit at the end of him launching a new veterans’ organisation to help former service folk get a better deal from a British government, which has a history of throwing them under the bus.
While Davidson wants to save the politically homeless, Braverman and Farage want to save the former forces’ homeless. Expect more to follow Braverman, taking Badenoch’s party even closer to the Liberal Democrats in all but name.
Burnham would have lost
For Labour, the Streeting “misunderstanding” had been put to bed last year only for Greater Manchester’s Mayor Andy Burnham to set off a bright red alarm by announcing he wanted to stand in a by-election for a Labour-held seat. But the speculation was enough for Starmer to have him ruled out.
Burnham has dodged a bullet and being denied the possibility of standing must suit him. He lives to fight another day and keep his current job, knowing that had he stood, he faced losing to Reform or the Greens. Now Starmer needs desperately to win the seat for if it is lost it will all be blamed on him. A bigger incentive to vote for anyone but Labour I cannot think of.
Meanwhile both parties are hurtling towards the May elections, riven with infighting, plotting and the salami-slicing by sectional interests. The odds for Badenoch and Starmer continuing beyond the spring are not looking good and even those colleagues supposedly trying to help all have their own agendas.
Burnham may now more openly back Angela Rayner while Streeting may launch a ‘real’ attack on the Prime Minister. To trigger a Labour leadership contest only takes 81 MPs to sign a letter – if they are interested in saving their seats it might even happen before the May elections.
Meanwhile Starmer and Reeves fly out to China where there have been reports of a failed military coup. Maybe they can ask the Communist party president what they should do? I’m sure he could trade some advice in return for them agreeing to China’s new supersized embassy in London.
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