Why the next Labour deputy leader could make life very uncomfortable for Keir Starmer

PA

The first thing to note about Angela Rayner’s resignation as deputy Prime Minister is that it happened at all. Politicians don’t, after all, always do the honourable thing.

Rather, a minister caught red-handed in this scandal or that failure will cling on, defiantly, even as the tide begins to smother them.

Think of former SNP health secretary Michael Matheson, for example. Long after it had been established that he’d broken expenses rules – and then lied about it – he refused to accept responsibility. Matheson stayed in position right up until the eve of a Holyrood report that would be devastating in its criticism of his actions.

Not only did Matheson, who will not stand for re-election next May, destroy his own reputation, he exposed then First Minister Humza Yousaf as weak and out of touch. Yousaf should have sacked Matheson as soon as news broke that he’d claimed £11,000 for internet expenses run up by his sons on a family holiday. Voters – as worried colleagues kept telling Yousaf – were furious about the whole damned thing.

In doing the right thing, Rayner retains a viable political career.

Her reputation with voters is not, currently, what it was. Her failure to pay £40,000 in stamp duty after the purchase of an £800,000 flat in Hove is indefensible. It is a perfect expression of “do as I say, not as I do” behaviour that has cost so many politicians their careers.

In opposition, Rayner was Labour’s chief attack dog when it came to the financial chicanery of wealthy Tory MPs. When it emerged, last week, that her own affairs were not in order, she had nowhere to turn.

But Rayner is a talented politician with a gift for connecting with voters. If she approaches this situation with an authentic blend of contrition and good humour – “I f***ed up and I’m sorry” – then she’ll be just fine.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s warm and regretful hand-written letter in response to Rayner’s resignation did nothing to disabuse me of the belief that she’ll be back on the frontline in some capacity – if she so wishes – soon enough.

While the storm engulfing Angela Rayner will pass soon enough, dark clouds are on Starmer’s horizon.

Last week, the Prime Minister, rather lamely, announced his Government was entering “phase two”. This spin – we’re supposed to believe the series of screw ups and U-turns that characterised the first year of this Labour government was actually a programme of difficult but necessary measures, forming the foundation upon which future success will be built – was an acknowledgement, of sorts, that too many voters for the party’s comfort are disappointed by the way things are going.

Now, instead of phase two being the phase when the government does lots of good things, it looks likely to be the phase where Starmer tries to maintain some vague impression of order in the party of government during a divisive and destabilising deputy leadership contest.

Given tensions in the Labour Party right now, I think it vanishingly unlikely that the process to replace Angela Rayner as deputy leader will be a peaceful one.

Looming over this process, from the very second it was confirmed on Friday afternoon that a contest was to take place, is the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.

Necessarily, as Israel is a democratic ally and one of the major providers to the UK of intelligence on terrorist activity, Starmer has largely been circumspect in his declarations on conflict in the Middle East. For many Labour members, who loudly and unequivocally support Palestine, the Prime Minister is a sell-out and a coward.

These activists do not care about the bland niceties of international diplomacy when there are juicy sanctions to be levelled or travel bans issued.

The first potential replacement deputy party leader to go out on manoeuvres on Friday was the left-wing MP Rosena Allin-Khan, who has repeatedly challenged Starmer over Gaza in the Commons.

Allin-Khan, an NHS doctor who recently travelled to Palestine to provide medical care, has called on the Government to sanction “murderous figures”, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for “the crime of extermination”.

This is very far from the kind of thing Starmer wants to hear from the next deputy leader of the Labour Party.

Within hours of Rayner’s resignation, “friends” of Allin-Khan were telling lobby journalists she’d been in receipt of a dizzying number of messages from colleagues urging her put her name forward.

As is normal with such kite-flying exercises, “friends” of Allin-Khan will be monitoring reaction among colleagues to gauge whether she has a decent chance of success.

If it’s not to be Allin-Khan then some other figure from Labour’s far left will emerge as a contender to become a perpetual problem for the Prime Minister.

One of the smartest political moves Starmer ever made was persuading supporters of his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, he shared their view of the world.

When it turned out Starmer wasn’t a radical working to smash the system from within, there was much wailing and fury from many on the left of the Labour Party who felt they’d been conned into backing a disgusting centrist.

Corbyn may be gone, now, off to build the “Your Party” project, but many of his fellow travellers remain on the Labour benches in the commons or as party members across the UK.

And a number of them believe the party needs to move left and quickly (mong those people, motivation ranges from the ideological to the vengeful).

Sir Keir Starmer has had a fairly disastrous first year as PM. A series of self-inflicted wounds caused by bad policy decisions and U-turns has seen goodwill towards him evaporate

In Angela Rayner, he had a deputy leader who often compensated for him.

There’s a very good chance the next holder of the post will make the Prime Minister’s life very difficult, indeed.