Why the Scottish Tories finally have a UK Conservative leader they aren't ashamed of – Murdo Fraser
Kemi Badenoch was the big winner from last week’s by-elections as her style of leadership is clearly resonating with voters
It was a long time coming. The last time the Conservatives won a Westminster by-election in Scotland was more than half a century ago, in 1973. The Earl of Dalkeith had to vacate his seat as MP for Edinburgh North when he assumed the title of Duke of Buccleuch on the death of his father, and Alex Fletcher retained the constituency in the subsequent by-election.
We have to go even further back than that, to 1967, to find when my party actually gained a Scottish seat in a Westminster by-election, when Esmond Wright, a historian, won the previously Labour-held seat of Glasgow Pollok.
All that changed on Thursday, with a stunning victory for my colleague Douglas Lumsden in the Aberdeen South by-election. I knew from visits to Aberdeen and reports from party colleagues that there was a good feeling about the campaign, but no one anticipated the scale of the victory.
The result wasn’t even close, with Lumsden scoring a stonking 6,000 majority over the SNP, Reform trailing in a poor third, and the Labour vote collapsing to fourth place. It was an overwhelming endorsement of the Conservative message around support for the North Sea oil and gas sector.
Swinney’s muddled message
The biggest losers from Aberdeen South are clearly the SNP, suffering a humiliation in what was the seat of their former Westminster leader, Stephen Flynn. John Swinney’s muddled stance on oil and gas, suggesting that further drilling can only take place subject to “climate compatibility tests”, simply did not resonate with the voters.
For a party who have become used to winning comfortably even in difficult times for them, the defeat in Aberdeen South will be a wake-up call, coming just after they were returned as the largest party in the Holyrood election.
The one person in the SNP who might just be a little bit encouraged by the Aberdeen South result is Flynn himself, who has been a much stronger advocate for the oil and gas industry than others in his party. Now holding the key brief of Economy Secretary in the Scottish Government, he has the opportunity to press the case for a rethink on energy policy. And Flynn will no doubt have made the calculation that this setback for Swinney will not have done his prospects of taking over from him in the near future any harm at all.
The big winners were, of course, the Scottish Conservatives. After a disappointing Holyrood election, the party has shown it can fight back and still attract support when there is a clear, positive message.
Encouragingly, Reform underperformed in Aberdeen South, and indeed in the other Scottish by-election that night in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, where they could only manage third place, while the Conservative candidate Jack Cruikshank delivered an increased share of the vote.
READ MORE: SNP needs to do some soul-searching on oil and gas after losing Aberdeen South by-election
Peak Reform?
It may be that the woeful performances of the new Reform leadership at Holyrood played a part, but it is significant that down in the Makerfield by-election, where Andy Burnham delivered a comprehensive victory for Labour, Reform again simply did not live up to expectations. The notion that we have already seen peak Reform is starting to take hold.
All of this is extremely good news for Kemi Badenoch. She invested heavily in the Aberdeen South campaign, visiting the seat at least three times during the election period. Her clear uncompromising message to get drilling again in the North Sea resonated with voters, and she is now Britain’s most popular party leader.
It has been a long time since the Scottish Conservatives can claim to have a UK leader who is a genuine asset, one we don’t want to hide away as much as possible during an election. Badenoch is someone who is a real positive for us, and I certainly want to see a lot more of her in Scotland in coming months.
She will be cheered not just by the poor performance of Reform across three by-elections, but also by what is happening in Labour. With Keir Starmer resigning, we could be in line for some weeks of a bitter leadership contest. Even should there be a coronation of Andy Burnham, that is likely to shift Labour to the left, given his stated opinions on public spending and active government (although, as many observers have already pointed out, it is far from clear what Burnham actually stands for).
Moderate, sensible and centre-right
One of Labour’s supposed strengths after winning the general election just two years ago was that they would bring a period of stability to British politics, after five Conservative Prime Ministers in just 14 years. With the resignation of Starmer after just two years in office, that claim has been blown apart. That gives Badenoch a real opportunity to present herself as a fresh face with a clear set of policies to take the country forward.
Labour shifting to the left under Burnham, if that is what happens, will leave the field open for moderate, sensible, centre-right conservatism epitomised by a straight-talking, no-nonsense leader, not identified with Conservative mistakes of the past.
And Badenoch will also benefit from what is going on in the right of British politics, where, as we saw in Makerfield, Reform themselves are facing a challenge to their right in the shape of Restore. It is something of an irony that Restore are now looking to do to Reform what Reform have been trying to do to the Conservatives, attracting defectors and splitting the vote.
With Labour moving leftwards and the hard-right fighting each other, the prospects for Badenoch have never been better. Last week’s by-elections, and not just our stunning victory in Aberdeen South, represent significant victories for the Tory leader.
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