Why the searing heat facing Scotland at World Cup is a warning to the world
According to one estimate, extreme weather could force 1.2 billion people to become refugees by 2050
At 9pm local time on June 13 in Boston Stadium, Scotland will make history when the whistle blows to start their first match at the men’s football World Cup since 1998. After taking on Haiti, a game against Morocco at the same stadium follows six days later, with the final group game, against the mighty Brazil, on June 24 in Miami Stadium.
Unfortunately for the Scots, the latter two games will be played at 6pm and both stadiums were listed among six World Cup venues classed as “of greatest concern for heat risk” in a paper in the International Journal of Biometeorology. Furthermore – unlike some other stadiums and despite being in one of the most humid parts of the US – Miami does not have a roof or air-conditioning.
How the Scots will cope with the conditions, relative to the Brazilians, may be a significant factor in the outcome of the match. This will almost certainly affect the tactics deployed by manager Steve Clarke – don’t expect to see an aggressive high press or many lung-bursting runs down the wing.
‘I don't think it's healthy’
According to the academic paper, ‘wet bulb globe temperatures’ (WBGT) – a measure of heat stress on the human body, accounting for temperature, humidity and several other factors – exceed 26 degrees Celsius WBGT in about half the days in June and July in Miami in an average year. This is regarded by some as the point at which things can become problematic for players.
And on days when this happens, these conditions remain until at least 8pm about half the time. There is also a small chance, based on historic data, that WBGT temperatures could exceed 28C between 6pm and 9pm.
Speaking to ESPN after a game against Bayern Munich on June 24 last year in Charlotte, North Carolina, when the WBGT temperature hit 29.2C, Benfica forward Andreas Schjelderup, who scored the winning goal, said: “I don't think I have ever played in such heat... I don't think it's healthy, to be honest, but I managed to get through it.”
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Players organisation Fifpro regards a WBGT temperature of 26C as warranting cooling breaks; if it goes above 28C (or the ambient temperature hits more than 36C), this should “lead to the delay or postponement of matches until conditions for players and officials (and fans) are safer”.
Fifa has already said there will be three-minute hydration breaks in each half of every game. However, while this should help players cool down by sweating, the effectiveness of this natural defence against excessive heat is dramatically reduced by high humidity. And it remains to be seen whether games will be delayed or postponed – a step with considerable financial implications.
1.5 million heat deaths a year in India by 2100?
Of course, football is not the only physical activity affected by extreme heat and humidity, and the US is far from the only place in the world where potentially dangerous conditions can occur.
A paper in the journal Nature Sustainability last year found that if global warming hits 2C, an estimated 41 per cent of the world’s population could experience extreme heat by 2050, “with the largest projected populations affected in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines”.
India, in particular, is “emerging as a global hot-spot” (pun presumably intended) for extreme heat, according to research published in the Scientific Reports journal in January. The scientists found that between 2041 and 2070, the number of days with a dangerously high ‘heat index’ – a measure of heat and humidity – of 27C was expected to rise by more than 50 days compared to the last 30 years of the 20th century.
And they added that projections “suggest that, without effective adaptation, extreme heat could claim up to 1.5 million additional Indian lives every year by 2100”.
The explosion of energy-hungry air-conditioning units in India demonstrates one response to such life-threatening conditions, but there is little comfort for people who are forced to work outside, like farmers and construction workers.
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A refugee crisis like no other
Eventually, despite modern technology, there is a point at which life becomes unbearable. Ultimately, truly vast numbers of people could be forced to become climate refugees – and not just because of extreme heat.
Desertification, droughts, flooding, water shortages, wildfires, storms and rising sea levels are all making life increasingly difficult for many people around the world, with millions of people already being forced to leave their homes every year because of extreme weather.
And the situation is only going to get worse. The Institute for Economics and Peace has estimated that “if natural disasters occur at the same rate seen in the last few decades, 1.2 billion people could be displaced globally by 2050”. Even if the actual number turns out to be significantly lower, the world is facing a refugee crisis on a scale that far surpasses any other in human history within the next 25 years.
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Given migration is already a significant issue in the politics of the UK, US and many other countries and the severe cuts to international aid budgets, the citizens of wealthier and more temperate countries look set to undergo a serious test of their morality.
Hopefully, Boston and Miami will be unusually cool for the time of year when Scotland take on Haiti, Morocco and Brazil, and Scott McTominay, Kieran Tierney and Kenny McLean will add to their tally of wonder-goals.
But if Miami Stadium turns into a furnace and our country’s finest footballers are reduced to a walking pace and robbed of a chance at sporting greatness by the weather, spare a thought for all those who must endure such life-threatening heat for days on end and the coming climate storm that may yet engulf us all.
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