Lib Dems' bold election strategy will copy Tories' and Greens' success with Holyrood list vote push
Alex Cole-Hamilton’s party has its sights set on a triumph in the Highlands at next May’s Holyrood election.
The Scottish Lib Dems are setting sights on tripling their number of MSPs at next year’s election - by learning lessons from the Tories and the Greens on how to make the most of Holyrood’s electoral system.
The Lib Dems are Holyrood’s constant optimists, even when the outlook has been grim. One Holyrood candidate said that the party is “a very cheery bunch”. But on the back of some very positive by-election results south of the Border, the party is launching itself into next year’s election with a real sense that its fortunes are on an upward trajectory.
Party leader Alex Cole-Hamilton made key pledges in his conference speech in Glasgow that will be well-trodden commitments ahead of next year’s election. Expect his appeal for “expanding pupil support in every school and giving every child the best start in life” to frame the party’s education brief and potentially a key budget ask of SNP ministers.
The Lib Dems supported the SNP’s budget last year, with Mr Cole-Hamilton boasting he has “secured £15m more for GPs”. There is more of a belief that success could make them a potential kingmaker in the likely event there is no majority at Holyrood next year, albeit restricted to budget help. The party regard working with John Swinney much easier than attempts to engage with Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf.
The Scottish Lib Dems are optimistically targeting 10 constituencies they could win in May, including a whopping six seats in the Highlands - alongside five potential regional list MSPs. That sense of positivity has been harnessed from Angus MacDonald picking up a surprise victory in Inverness, Skye and West-Ross-shire at last year’s Westminster election, stunning the SNP and increasing the party’s vote share by almost 23 per cent.
A senior Lib Dem source said the key to a Highlands triumph will be “exporting what Angus did to all the other seats around it”.
Even before Kate Forbes announced her impending departure, the Lib Dems fancied winning her Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch seat. The party also has its sights set on SNP minister Maree Todd’s Caithness, Sutherland and Ross constituency, potentially benefiting from local unrest over health services and roads infrastructure in the Far North.
Jamie Greene, who defected from the Tories in April, is also hoping to get elected on a Lib Dem ticket in May. Mr Greene, who was flooded with selfie requests from activists at this weekend’s conference, is standing in the Inverclyde constituency but is unlikely to win.
But his second place on the West of Scotland regional list is within reach if the Lib Dems have a good night next May - with his chances even better if their top list candidate Adam Harley manages to win the Strathkelvin and Bearsden constituency.
A senior party source said the Lib Dems have focused on constituencies and communities where their vote has traditionally been strong, but “never really ask people to vote for us on the list”.
The source added: “We’ve learned stuff from the Greens. We’ve learned stuff from the very good Tory list campaign last time. We will be stealing a lot of that and getting stuck into that quite early on.
“The difference between a good night for us where we win eight or nine constituencies and a great night for us is the list seats.”
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The Conservatives regional list success in the West of Scotland, which ironically helped Mr Greene to success for his now-former party, will be looked at as a model the Lib Dems can mirror - probably helped by their former Tory spilling the beans on that campaign from 2021.
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