The Scottish Tories are so bullish you might forget how disastrous May was
The Aberdeen South by-election has caused the Scottish Tories’ whole demeanour to change.
Russell Findlay cut a bullish figure as he spoke at the Scottish fringe event at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham.
He boldly predicted that Kemi Badenoch would become Prime Minister, saying that he and her were “fighters”.
He said that they “embrace every single day” the “fight even just to be heard”.
The West Scotland MSP was also in a jovial mood.
He poked fun at shadow energy secretary Andrew Bowie, saying that new shadow Scottish secretary Harriet Cross was “what you call an upgrade”.
He said that Aberdeen South by-election winner Douglas Lumsden “was just a wee toddler” when the Scottish Tories last won a Westminster by-election, adding that “he still is adorable”.
He joke about being two years in the job with a wry smile: “Doesn't time fly when you're having fun?”
“And a lot has changed in that time. So Keir Starmer had just been swept into Downing Street, since swept back out again.
“Peter Murrell was an innocent man, now a guilty guest of His Majesty, and Nicola Sturgeon was resident in Scotland, now a lovey in London.”
In fact Mr Findlay was in such fine form that you could have easily forgotten how badly the party did in May’s Holyrood election.
The Tories went from second to fifth, losing more than 10 per cent of the vote and 19 MSPs.
And if Eastwood candidate Jackson Carlaw had won just 733 more votes, Mr Findlay would not have returned as an MSP.
The Conservatives winning a constituency in the West Scotland region would have ruled him out of getting a seat on the list.
There is one reason the party is upbeat: the Aberdeen South by-election.
Winning SNP cabinet secretary Stephen Flynn’s old seat was mentioned several times in the fringe event, with Mr Findlay and Ms Cross gleefully noting that the Tories won nearly half the vote.
One result, six weeks after being at their lowest ebb, has changed the whole party’s demeanour.
Instead of worrying about what has happened, they are now looking forward, hoping to gain ground.
They should be careful, though - and learn a lesson from Scottish Labour.
Against all odds, awkward Davy Russell managed to beat the SNP and Reform in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election in June last year.
Scottish Labour folk were over the moon, with their head of communications bringing a physical humble pie for journalists at the press event the following day.
This single result made them forget completely about the party’s terrible polling, and made many of them predict they would win the Holyrood election right up to the last moment.
They were very wrong. Labour slumped to its worst ever defeat and Mr Russell lost his seat less than a year after entering Holyrood.
It is unlikely that the Tories will be quite as delusional. They won’t take one result and think that it means they are coming to power in Edinburgh.
But they should be cautious about thinking their troubles are over.
They must remember that the Aberdeen South by-election was in a specific part of Scotland at a specific time.
The hangover from 14 years of government still remains.
The Conservatives are still not the main party of the right in Scotland.
Returning to that role should be their main priority.
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