What is the pension triple lock, and could any changes impact Scotland?
We take a look at exactly what the triple lock is, and why there are suggestions it could soon be scrapped.
Andy Burnham is due to make his first major speech to the UK Labour conference as Prime Minister on Tuesday.
In recent weeks he has announced some big plans - and costly ones at that.
Amongst his proposals has been the introduction of a new national care service, with an estimated price tag of around £18 billion.
There has been suggestions that Mr Burnham could scrap the triple lock to pay for this - but what exactly is the triple lock, and what would scrapping it mean for Scotland?
What is the triple lock?
The triple lock refers to how much state pensions increase each year.
State pension rates increase at the beginning of every new tax year on April 6 and the triple lock guarantee means the new payment rates are based on whatever of the three are highest:
- The consumer price index measure of inflation
- Average wage growth between May and July the previous year
- 2.5 per cent.
For the 2026/27 tax year, the new and basic state pension increased in line with average wage growth, as this was the highest out of the three at 4.8 per cent. The new full state pension pays £241.30 a week.
In theory, the triple lock expires at the end of this parliament.
How much does the triple lock cost?
A lot - it is currently costing the UK Government £15.5 billion a year, which is triple the original estimates of the 2030 costs.
Scrapping the triple lock and replacing it with an earnings link instead could save tens of billions of pounds a year.
Is it being scrapped?
We do not know. Successive governments have pledged to protect the triple lock, not wanting to upset voting pensioners.
In fact, Sharon Graham, general secretary of the Unite union, said scrapping the triple lock would be “electoral suicide”.
However there are expectations that Mr Burnham will say the guarantee on a minimum increase to the state pension will be scrapped to help pay for his pension plans.
He previously said “nothing was off the table” when it comes to finding the costs for a new national care service.
But did Labour not promise to keep the triple lock?
Yes - in their 2024 election manifesto, Labour pledged to keep the triple lock on state pensions.
Speaking to BBC Radio Scotland Breakfast on Tuesday morning, the new Scottish Labour leader Michael Marra said: “We stood on a manifesto in 2024 that committed to the triple lock and that will be maintained.”
Therefore if there are any changes to the triple lock it is expected these changes will not come into force until after the next election, meaning Labour technically has not broken its manifesto promise.
What does this mean for Scotland?
State pensions are reserved to Westminster. It is administered by the UK Department of Work and Pensions, not Social Security Scotland.
Therefore, the Scottish Government would not have any control over whether or not the triple lock is maintained in Scotland - if a decision on this is taken at UK level, it would affect what happens to pensioners in Scotland.
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