What will happen in Scottish politics in 2026? We ask the experts
We talk to some political experts on their predictions for 2026.
A lot can happen in a year in politics and 2026 looks to be no different, particularly because of the Scottish Parliament election in May.
For political anoraks there is a lot to look out for over the coming 12 months. How different will Holyrood look? Can the SNP hold onto power? Can independence come back to the forefront?
There are some big names to keep an eye on as well. Will SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn successfully make the leap to Holyrood? Will Malcolm Offord be rewarded for his defection from the Conservatives to Reform UK? And will Sir Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister?
The Scotsman has spoken to a series of political experts about their political predictions for the year ahead.
Professor Sir John Curtice, Strathclyde University
“I am not anticipating a change of government but I’m not sure how much strength or weakness it will have so there is uncertainty.
“Are we talking about an SNP government that is very much a minority, or an SNP government that can get things through Holyrood by doing deals with other parties? That is still all up for grabs.
“We are also going to see greater fragmentation in the unionist representation with the arrival of Reform UK and the impact that will have on how Holyrood operates and political discourse north of the border.
“There is also potentially the arrival of Stephen Flynn in Holyrood. We will be looking to see how he performs in the chamber and whether he can mend fences with the Holyrood party.
“And by this time next year who will we be looking at as the next first minister? Stephen Flynn has the ability to put on a public performance and given Kate Forbes is going to be out of the frame and Màiri McAllan has not made much impact on the public as of yet, Stephen Flynn seems to be the most accomplished and a proven pair of hands.
“The question is can he craft a message to move the dial on independence or run anything?
“He has the crucial attributes to be a successful politician and is therefore inevitably someone who will be a serious candidate to replace John Swinney when he decides to move on.
“Elsewhere, will Anas Sarwar still be Labour leader? He may decide he has had enough in advancing the call of a party that is being held underwater by the failings of the party down south.
“Looking to Malcolm Offord, he is in the frame for leadership of Reform UK north of the border.
“I’m not sure anyone is too fussed about Russell Findlay surviving or not as Scottish Conservative leader. But we might have a change in Prime Minister in the wake of not so much the Holyrood election, but the Cardiff and local elections in England, so we obviously need to look out for that.”
Mark Diffley, Diffley Partnership
“Polling itself is now fairly regular and tells a similar, relatively stable story from the last six to nine months.
“What we are not discussing as much is the number of MSPs standing down at the election.
“There are about 40, but it is not just the number, it is the level of expertise and experience that is being lost - two ex-first ministers, the deputy first minister, former party leaders and current and former cabinet ministers.
“So putting politics to one side, the level of expertise and experience next year will be a significant issue.
“There will be hardly any MSPs from 1999 left either [only John Swinney and Dame Jackie Baillie are standing for re-election].
“It is important to have these people who know how things are run, how the systems work, how legislation is processed and how committees work, so parliament as an institution will feel very different.
“In the short-term there might be 50 or 60 new MSPs who have never been in politics before and have never held elected office.
“Some will argue that it is a good thing to have fresh blood coming in because some think Holyrood has become stale and unchallenging.
“But I think we are going to see that disappear overnight with a whole cohort of MSPs who don’t have the experience or the expertise of those they are replacing.”
Allan Faulds, Ballot Box Scotland
“In the election it is going to be whether or not we do get an SNP government returned.
“I don’t think they will get a majority, I think that is impossible.
“The number of people standing down will be the biggest turnover in Holyrood’s history so there will be a massively changed landscape for everyone, even if the SNP are still in government.
“We are also looking at polls which have Reform UK in second place which would shake up Holyrood.
“A big Reform UK contingent could be quite disruptive, but no Nigel Farage outfit has managed to hold onto all its members for long. They could fall out with each other quickly which could be dramatic.
“UK wide, there are also elections in Wales and we could see all three devolved parts of the UK with nationalist first ministers. What that means for the future of the UK could be a big moment, so we need to keep an eye on what is happening outside of Scotland.
“Plaid Cymru in Wales is having a huge moment. We are used to not having Labour in charge in Scotland, but Wales has never had that so the vibes are shifting a bit.”
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