Tories stare down an electoral trouncing as they gather in Edinburgh
The internal party atmosphere is not, perhaps, as bleak as you might expect
If the polls are accurate, the Scottish Conservatives are on course for an electoral trouncing.
The party is expected to shed MSPs at the upcoming Holyrood election, and the reason for this can be distilled to a single word: Reform.
"It's Reform what's doing it,” polling expert Sir John Curtice told The Scotsman. "Their problem is the same problem that the party faces down south, which is that most of the losses they are suffering are going to Reform."
Nigel Farage’s party is tearing chunks out of the Tory vote in Scotland. What will be left come May 7 is an open question. But as the Scottish Tories gather for their conference in Edinburgh, the atmosphere is not, perhaps, as bleak as you might expect.
"I would describe it as upbeat, and that's not me spinning,” said one MSP. “I can't explain why, but there seems to be a positive mood.”
They pointed to the “consistent approach” taken by Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay and his UK counterpart, Kemi Badenoch. It is a far cry from some of the bitter cross-border divisions of recent years.
There is also, perhaps, the freedom afforded by low expectations. The polls are what they are. The party might as well give the election its best shot, and let the chips fall where they may.
After all, even a loss can be painted as a win of sorts if it is not as awful as once feared.
Mr Findlay has been accused of aping Reform with some of his party’s populist rhetoric, but senior figures are keen to stress the differences between the two parties.
There are “very, very clear” dividing lines, a source insisted, including on the constitution and the credibility of their respective policy platforms.
They argued Mr Farage’s party is weak on independence, pointing to recent comments by Malcolm Offord, the leader of Reform in Scotland.
He has said independence should be parked as an issue for the next decade. The Tories, of course, would rather it was parked forever. Simply kicking the can down the road hands the SNP an opportunity, they say.
“The polls are not that far off showing the SNP gaining a majority and Reform are helping them achieve that,” the Tory source said. “This idea that Reform and the Tories are similar is simply wrong. It’s not borne out by the facts.”
Ms Badenoch will address the Scottish conference at Murrayfield on Friday afternoon, while Mr Findlay will deliver his big speech on Saturday. Both will hope to gee up the troops ahead of a difficult campaign.
Mr Findlay, a former tabloid journalist, is known for speaking in punchy, quotable soundbites. He has the ex-hack’s knack of seeing things in headlines. But he remains relatively unknown outside the Holyrood bubble.
Meanwhile, behind the scenes, there is some hope the polls might start to shift closer to the election, once the stakes become clear and the campaign starts in earnest.
“At the end of the day, all we can do is fight a good campaign,” the senior party figure told me.
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