Scotland can beat Ireland in Six Nations and here’s where it will be won and lost
This amazing, unpredictable Six Nations could have a thrilling finale
I felt Scotland could beat France, but I don’t think anyone expected them to score that many tries. For me, it was probably their best performance under Gregor Townsend. They were outstanding.
Five weeks ago there was speculation about Gregor losing his job. Now he could win the Six Nations. That’s how quickly things can change in sport.
It has been an amazing championship — completely unpredictable and hugely competitive. Not so long ago, people were calling for relegation and promotion in the Six Nations. Some wanted Italy out, others Wales. Now everyone seems capable of beating everyone else.
England’s collapse is perhaps the most extreme example of how quickly things can unravel. Never mind the Six Nations — three weeks ago they were being talked up as potential World Cup winners. They arrived at Murrayfield having won 12 games in a row and were on course for a Grand Slam decider in Paris. Now they’re fighting to avoid the wooden spoon, and I’m not sure Steve Borthwick will survive, regardless of their result against France on Saturday night.
Ireland quite poor against Wales
Unusually, we’ll all be cheering on England at the Stade de France — provided Scotland beat Ireland in the early game — and I think they can. Scotland should have won in Dublin a couple of years ago. I was there doing commentary and felt they lost the game in a five-or six-minute spell.
Of course, it’s been a bad run against Ireland, but Scotland have actually been really competitive over the past couple of years. I think the added pressure of chasing the title might even help them this weekend. It’s not just about beating Ireland — it’s bigger than that, Scotland could actually win the Six Nations.
I thought Ireland were quite poor against Wales on Friday night, despite winning 27-17. Wales defended extremely well, but Ireland’s attack was disappointing — very one-dimensional and blunt, which is exactly what Wales would have wanted.
Having said that, Ireland’s attritional style has worked against Scotland in the past. One area they’ll certainly target is Scotland’s tendency to be vulnerable out wide. Scotland were caught a couple of times on the edge against France, and have struggled a few times with the transition in backfield.
If I were Andy Farrell, I would stick with Jack Crowley because I think he’s their best fly-half, but they might look for support from Sam Prendergast, who sits a lot deeper and is able to find space in the wide channels through his kicking.
The kicking battle is going to be massive. I thought Scotland were really clever with how they kicked at the weekend. We previewed it a little last week, noting how good France are at regathering box kicks, but Scotland took that away from them. They went high with cross-field kicks and shifted the ball across the pitch so that France couldn’t get set. They didn’t have the right people on their feet to get back and get behind the ball.
Surprise pick performed well
Scotland didn’t go for contestable kicks until later in the game. In the first half everything from nine was longer, ball-and-all tackles rather than competition in the air, to create rucks and structured defensive sets rather than unpredictable transition attacks from loose balls.
They’ll have to be clever again this week, because Ireland are so dangerous off those transitions. Jamison Gibson-Park sits just behind the contest and picks up a lot of ‘scraps’ & bobbling balls from the aerial 50/50 challenges.
As always, the set-piece will be hugely important. I thought Scotland’s scrum was excellent at the weekend. Again, it was something we previewed. We knew the Scottish scrum had struggled earlier in the championship, but France hadn’t been as powerful or dominant as some expected.
To be honest, I didn’t envisage Gregor selecting D’arcy Rae to start and putting Zander Fagerson on the bench. But the fact that Rae was still there until just before half-time shows how well he played. Scotland handled the French scrum really well. They got it wrong just once when Pierre Schoeman was penalised for being a little too aggressive, but overall they nullified the French threat and gave themselves a solid platform.
The lineout will also be key this week and Scotland go into the game without Scott Cummings, their lineout leader, and fellow lock Gregor Brown, both of whom were injured against France. It’s a big loss because both have been excellent.
Second row conundrum
I think Grant Gilchrist will come back in to start. He was criticised for his performance in the loss to Italy, but he has been very good off the bench in the last couple of games.
The partnership in the second row is important and Scotland need to be careful not to select two locks who are too similar. I don’t think you can have Gilchrist and Jonny Gray, for example — or even Grant and Max Williamson. They both get through a huge amount of work, but that pairing might lack impact and power.
It would be a big call to bring Alex Craig in, but he’s dynamic, and a second-row partnership of Gilchrist and Craig would appeal to me. Against Ireland you’re going to need someone who can carry hard and punch through the tackle line to create front foot ball.
The one negative from the French game — other than the injuries — was conceding 26 points in the final 15 minutes. Scotland had led 47–14 at one point but were forced into makeshift changes after losing Cummings, Brown, Huw Jones and Kyle Steyn. Josh Bayliss had to move into the second row and he’s a little too light for that, while Rory Darge ended up at centre.
Credit to France, because in those final 15 minutes they battered Scotland physically, scoring four tries and securing a bonus point. That could ultimately be the factor that takes the championship away from Scotland, even if they do beat Ireland. France know that if they beat England with a bonus point, the title will almost certainly be theirs regardless of what Scotland do.
Scotland can’t let that concern them, and they won’t. I think they can win in Dublin because I don’t think this is a great Irish team. I think they have great performances in them, but I’m not sure they have the same consistency they’ve shown over the past couple of years.
There are some older players in the side, they’re trying to integrate newer ones, and they’ve got some significant injuries. It’s also week five of the Six Nations following a Lions tour in which Ireland were heavily represented. Fatigue will inevitably creep in.
That should play into Scotland’s hands, but I don’t think they’ll want a tight game. If it’s only a point or two in it, I’m not sure Scotland get over the line. If they’re going to win, they need to do it by a decent margin. They have to go out, attack and try to score tries.
Back to his abrasive best
They’ll likely need a bonus-point win, so the game will be open to a certain extent. You might as well go to Ireland and lose with all guns blazing than go there and scrape a 9-8 win. Scotland have to go out with the aim of winning the championship — and then whatever happens in Paris happens.
Injuries aside, I don’t think Gregor will make many changes. I don’t see why he would. He has changed his hooker in every game of this campaign, but I thought George Turner was back to his abrasive best against France — probably the best I’ve seen him play for a couple of years.
The half-backs and centres will stay the same, and the back three will depend on Kyle Steyn’s fitness. He’s been Scotland’s best player and hopefully he recovers from the deep cut he suffered on Saturday.
As I said, I think Scotland will win — but after last week I’m steering clear of predicting the score. I can’t honestly see England beating France in Paris, but who knows with this championship? Its unpredictability has been utterly compelling.
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