Scotland decline evident under Gregor Townsend and ill-advised move could prove his downfall

Defeat always brings despondency but the loss in Rome felt like the beginning of the end for Gregor Townsend’s stewardship.

It’s only round one but it already looks as if this Six Nations will be a long slog for Scotland.

His team welcome England to Murrayfield this Saturday and while they have enjoyed some stellar results and performances against their oldest rivals under Townsend, this is a far more robust English outfit than has been the case in recent seasons.

Scotland head coach Gregor Townsend watches his players during the warm-up before the Six Nations defeat to Italy at Stadio Olimpico, in Rome, on February 7, 2026. (Photo by Alberto PIZZOLI / AFP via Getty Images) | AFP via Getty Images

A loss to Steve Borthwick’s side will likely turn Scotland's round three clash with Wales in Cardiff into a wooden spoon decider, with Townsend’s old comrade Steve Tandy ready to do the stirring.

Games against France at home and Ireland away will follow but it’s a tough end to the championship for the Scots who had high hopes of making a winning start in Italy.

You have to go back to 2020 for the last time Scotland lost their Six Nations opener and Saturday’s 18-15 defeat in the Roman monsoon was the least the hosts deserved. Italy played with urgency in the first 20 minutes, plundering two tries as the visitors twice scorned opportunities by butchering their own lineout close to the Italy line.

The conditions were relatively benign at that point. When the heavens opened, it became more difficult to find a way through and Scotland's creative men struggled.

Scotland's Gregor Brown (centre) in action with the ball during the Guinness Men's Six Nations match at the Stadio Olimpico, Rome. | PA

Red Bull role could be Townsend’s downfall

Townsend was asked about his future in the aftermath and insisted he wanted to stay on as head coach but his grip on the job seems to be loosening. There is growing evidence to suggest the team is in decline but it is the coach's extracurricular work with Red Bull that could be his downfall.

Much as he tries to bat away links to Newcastle Red Bulls, it is not a story that will be disappearing any time soon.

“Don't take the bait from an English newspaper that are trying to do something the week ahead of the Calcutta Cup,” said Townsend last week after the Daily Telegraph published a story saying he would be taking over at Newcastle when his contract with Scotland expires.

He is already doing consultancy work with Red Bull, a part-time job he undertakes in his own time. Scottish Rugby gave its blessing to this but it would surprise no-one if Townsend takes a more hands-one role at Newcastle when he departs Murrayfield. The question is when?

As predicted, Red Bull has become an unwelcome distraction and it’s likely to dominate the rugby news agenda this week, particularly with the aforementioned ‘English newspapers’ in town.

Alan Dickens said on Friday night that he would be stepping down as Newcastle’s head coach at the end of the season and while it’s more plausible that Townsend would take a director of rugby role, the machinations at Kingston Park threaten to overshadow Scotland’s Six Nations campaign.

It always felt like this might be the case when it was announced on October 1 that Townsend had joined Red Bull as “strategic advisor and consultant on their global rugby strategy”.

The Scotland job should be enough for any coach but Townsend has been allowed to take on the consultancy work and that reflects poorly on the Murrayfield hierarchy. They must have known there was potential for a conflict of interest at the very least. As it is, Red Bull stories are already generating enough negative publicity to detract from the job in hand.

David Nucifora was in Rome at the weekend, a rare public outing for Scottish Rugby’s “performance director consultant”. The Australian appears to have been handed the keys to the controls at Murrayfield but his contract’s up in August.

There is little to suggest he has much appetite for change and neither does Alex Williamson, Scottish Rugby's chief executive. Townsend was handed a new deal in September, 28 days before the Red Bull role became public.

Another drop in World Ranking looms

The coach is contracted until the end of next year, a span that includes the 2027 Rugby World Cup but there is a growing dissatisfaction within the supporter base, exacerbated by the Red Bull work and results like Saturday’s, the collapse against Argentina in the autumn and the loss to Fiji on the summer tour.

World Rugby will publish its latest rankings on Monday and Scotland will have slipped to 10th, below Italy.

They were fifth when Townsend took over in 2017 and sixth as recently as this time last year. The evidence points to decline and there was little on display in Rome to suggest otherwise.

Nothing is likely to happen in the midst of a campaign but if Scotland continue in the same dismal manner, Nucifora and Williamson will have a big decision to make when the Six Nations is over.

Townsend will cop the flak - it comes with the territory - but the players need to shoulder their share of the blame. There were few dissenting voices when the team was named as the coach picked in-form players such as Jamie Dobie and Kyle Steyn and dropped Blair Kinghorn, Duhan van der Merwe and Darcy Graham, three Lions who have looked off the pace.

But few in the Scotland team performed anywhere near their best. The set-piece was a mess, particularly the lineout, and Ewan Ashman is likely to pay the price, with a change of hooker expected against England. Italy also had the best of the scrum against the hugely experienced Scotland props, Zander Fagerson and Pierre Schoeman.

The conditions were dreadful but the Scots struggled in attack. Finn Russell kicked the visitors into good positions from a couple of early penalties but lineout failings cost them. Italy stole five over the course of the 80 minutes.

Sione Tuipulotu and Huw Jones failed to fire in the midfield and were eclipsed by Italy's centres, Tommaso Menoncello and Ignacio Brex. Dobie struggled all afternoon, Steyn and Tom Jordan fared little better and it all seemed too easy as Brex kicked in behind to set up Louis Lynagh for Italy's opening try.

Expect changes for the Calcutta Cup. Scotland have lost only two of their last eight against England and have beaten them three times out of four at Murrayfield under Townsend. It's a fixture the coach has relished and achieved a mastery in that is likely to be remembered as his greatest achievement as Scotland coach.

But the England of 2026 have an ominous strength about them. Their swatting aside of Wales on Saturday was their 12th consecutive win and they will arrive in Edinburgh on Thursday with designs on the championship.

It could be a defining match in more ways than one.

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