Amid talk of snap election, not-so-smartie Burnham has left Scottish Labour in disarray – John McLellan
To paraphrase Mel Brooks’ film The Producers, it may be Springtime for Burnham but winter for Scottish Labour
I don’t know if Andy Burnham is a fan of The Producers, but like the spectacularly bad Springtime for Hitler musical in the Mel Brooks movie, there must surely be some method to the madness of the appointment of Anas Sarwar as a junior minister and his elevation to the House of Lords.
The chaos this has caused in Scottish Labour ranks has been plain to see all week, from Edinburgh Southern MSP Daniel Johnson bravely speaking up to loyally defend the decision, to pelters from the likes of Brian Leishman MP and, ever the firebrand, ex-MSP Neil Findlay. Behind the scenes, the prevailing mood amongst my Labour contacts was one of dismay.
Whether the shockwaves reached Number 10 is questionable, and it’s feasible it hasn’t registered with the new Prime Minster at all, because if it mattered that much then it’s arguable the appointment would never have been made. Having decided to keep Douglas Alexander as his main man in Scotland, are we to believe the hugely experienced Scotland Secretary thought this was a good idea? Or was advice ignored? Or, on the eve of his Commonwealth Games appearance, was it meant to let Scottish Labour know he’s in charge?
Symbol of cronyism?
It is, however, unfeasible that no one more appropriate could be found to become a junior business minister in the Lords than someone whose proudest boast was his background as a former NHS dentist. Sir Tom Hunter he ain’t, and if anything his family’s wealth, built on his father’s wholesale business, has been more a matter of political embarrassment than pride. Lord Sarwar of Hutchie indeed.
As for Mr Sarwar’s political achievements, losing even more MSPs from a low base of 22 to tie for second with Reform on 17 was only seen as some sort of success because a predicted poor third-place finish was avoided. If it’s a reward for being first out the blocks to call for the resignation of his “friend” Sir Keir Starmer, as far as a symbol of cronyism is concerned it puts it up alongside Michelle Mone. Smoke and mirrors it might have been, but at least Baroness Mone of Mayfair ran a business. And her appointment was less divisive because appalled Scottish Conservatives unanimously thought David Cameron had taken leave of his senses.
To have dumped so many ministers whose only crime, as they say in Ulster, was loyalty, and to hand plum jobs to the squad who did their best to unseat his predecessor makes Mr Burnham more King of the Cronies than King of the North, but if the rhetoric is matched by meaningful action, then it’s a fair chance English voters will forget.
From a London, sorry Manchester, perspective the Sarwar row would barely be on the Downing Street radar as it didn’t feature on either the BBC or ITV News at Ten on Wednesday night, bulletins dominated by Mr Burnham’s attempts to firefight the looming early release of two men only six years into 13-year sentences over the killing of PC Andrew Harper. If it registered at all, it will have been dismissed as a 24-hour story which would quickly subside.
Feel-good announcements
Except, of course, that in Scotland it won’t, and it’s deeply ironic that a Prime Minister whose rise was built on exploiting devolution has ignored the serious implications of the Sarwar appointment for his party in a devolved nation. It surely cannot be lost on him that after Labour’s sighs of relief that the summer would not be dominated by a leadership campaign, that’s precisely what Mr Burnham has foisted on the Scottish party.
And it’s set to be a potentially difficult contest at that, with Monica Lennon, newly returned to Holyrood following her brief spell on the buroo after being dumped by the voters in May, already tipped for a face-off with the widely respected Dundee MSP Michael Marra.
In those circumstances, the potential for reopening highly divisive issues like trans rights and gender self-identification would be high, which would be good news for the Conservatives and Reform if it wasn’t so far out from an election. Then again, with a flurry of what he hopes will be feel-good policy announcements like the £2 bus fare cap – already an SNP manifesto commitment – the removal of VAT from domestic electricity bills, and business rates relief for English pubs, the chances of a snap election in the autumn can’t be ruled out.
But against the background of a bitter leadership contest in Scotland so soon after such a poor showing in the Scottish Parliament elections, Scottish Labour will not be in a fit state to fight a general election, balanced only by the likely framing of a contest as a choice between New Boy Burnham and an increasingly pressured Nigel Farage.
Burnham’s gloss may fade
Labour, like the Scottish Conservatives, must accept that their fortunes have long been, with the possible exception of Ruth Davidson, tied to the performance and personality of the UK leader, which puts Scottish Labour in the difficult position of being in disarray but needing a snap election while Burnham still has some gloss. Leave it, and the gloss will have gone, but not the problems.
If John Swinney was expecting a Burnham bounce to keep him on his toes, he must have thought Christmas had come early when news of the Sarwar appointment broke, and he might get another tilt if the Prime Minister believes his personality and programme are strong enough to counter what he might regard as a minor local difficulty.
It might be Springtime for Burnham and England, but he should hope it’s not winter in Scotland, and as Mel Brooks might have written…. Is he stupid, or is he a smartie? But Andy Burnham has screwed the Scottish Labour Party….
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