Russian interference in UK politics: Why more than 100,000 people want a public inquiry
It is clear that Russia is trying to undermine democracy in this country, but we need to know the size of the threat
A petition calling on the Westminster government to hold a public inquiry into Russian interference in UK politics and democracy has now topped 100,000 signatures. That means a debate in parliament will be considered, though a resulting public inquiry is far from assured.
We know Russia has form. In 2020, Westminster’s Intelligence and Security Committee published a report which found “there is substantial evidence that Russian interference in British politics is commonplace”. That included activities to influence the 2014 Scottish independence referendum and the Brexit vote in 2016.
This was an investigation led by a committee of MPs and Lords, not the Conservative government of the day. When eventually, Boris Johnson permitted its publication, it was heavily redacted. Then, there was no public smoking gun. Now there is.
Russia’s man in Reform UK
On November 21, Nathan Gill, the former leader of the Reform UK party in Wales was sentenced to ten years and six months in prison for taking bribes for pro-Russia interviews and speeches. In return, he promoted Russia’s interests when he was a member of the European Parliament. Effectively Gill became part of Russia’s covert operations.
The question is: are there other members of Reform UK taking Vladimir Putin’s cash or in any other political party? How about the diplomatic corps, universities, business or finance?
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Despite Putin’s frequent claims that Russia is no threat to Europe, it has an established track record as an aggressor state: its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and, in 2008, its attack on Georgia. Russia may not have covetous eyes on the UK itself, but it does want to minimise Britain’s influence in Nato and with the EU, USA and globally.
The latest US attempts at a Ukraine peace deal appear stalled. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned Russia has “no real intent” of engaging in “serious peace discussions”, adding: “The ‘Russian playbook’ of aggression has not changed, and Ukraine could be just the start.”
A nuclear threat?
Speaking at a meeting of the Royal Philosophical Society of Glasgow last month, former BBC Moscow correspondent and Kremlin expert Martin Sixsmith said that hardliners to the right of Putin have been urging him to be more forceful on Ukraine.
Tactical or “theatre” nuclear weapons have been mentioned. Even London has been cited as a suitable city to attack. Those hardliners suggest dropping a nuclear weapon on London would demonstrate Russia’s resolve and possibly deter the UK or anyone else from retaliatory action.
The Ministry of Defence says there’s been “a 30 per cent increase in Russian vessels threatening UK waters in recent years”. Russian probing comes from aircraft, drones, submarines, surface warships and so-called “research vessels” that are, in fact, spy ships.
Intelligence sources believe Russia is mapping the complex web of underwater cables that connect the UK to the global telecommunications highway and that bring electricity onto the mainland from remote windfarms and other countries.
Cyberattacks
Last month, the MoD said it had joined with the US and Australia in sanctioning a Russian cybercrime group responsible for facilitating cyberattacks on UK-based companies.
Among the giants of the British business scene, no sector comes bigger than financial services. Its size and range of expertise mean London competes with New York to be the world’s number-one finance location. It faces growing competition following Brexit from other European centres and from the rise of Asian financial markets.
Any dent in global confidence about the UK’s ability to trade uninterrupted worldwide would be jumped on by competitors. A large-scale cyberattack on British finance would damage our national finances – last year, the banking sector paid just short of £49 billion in taxes to the UK Treasury.
Trump undermining confidence in Nato
For almost all of the past 80 years, we in the UK have relied on Nato and its biggest financial and military member, the USA, to provide us with a shield of security. While Donald Trump is in the White House, that position is far from certain.
In any alliance, mutual confidence is essential. The actions of each ally, especially in international military affairs, must be predicable, almost to the point of certainty. That’s not a state we currently enjoy with Trump.
Euronews recently reported that America’s ambassador to Germany has suggested that a German should eventually hold the post of Supreme Allied Commander of Nato, a role held only by an American since the foundation of the alliance in 1949. How long can Nato as we know it last?
It’s in the best interests of the UK to keep the US as the prime mover in Nato. But we can’t be sure a new administration coming in after Trump will simply pick up the reins as if nothing has changed in the interim.
America can never be quite the same country again. Our long recent friendship will not be easily rekindled, although there is no evidence of any kind that America wishes us ill.
Defending democracy
The same cannot be said of Russia. A real and present danger exists. In 2029, we will have what may be a general election of great consequence. We must know long beforehand that it will be a scrupulously fair one.
It is critical that we establish the nature, size and immediacy of the Russian threat. We can then frame appropriate foreign and defence policies.
There is no time to lose. Time for Keir Starmer to order a public inquiry.
Martin Roche sits on the executive committee of the European Movement in Scotland. He is a writer and had a 35-year career in international public relations.
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