Why Reform UK has a Nigel Farage problem in Scotland
Nigel Farage’s desire to control his party means Reform UK’s leader in Scotland may find themselves undermined from day one of the next Scottish Parliament
I have met Nigel Farage just the once, many years ago when we took part in a political debate in Dundee. Although I fundamentally disagreed with many of his views, then as now, he was affable and good company, the sort of individual who one might enjoy a pint with in the pub.
Undoubtedly, he has a semblance of the common touch, as he was able to demonstrate during his appearance on ITV’s I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out of Here in 2023. Lest any readers fear that I am about to announce a dramatic end-of-year defection to Reform, let me quickly reassure them that that is not going to happen.
I am a centre-right Conservative in the One Nation tradition, not someone attracted to the populist right. Contrary to what some seem to believe, Reform is not an alternative Conservative party, but something very different, holding policy positions on issues like the economy and welfare that could easily be characterised as left-of-centre.
Farage’s unpopularity in Scotland
Despite his very occasional visits to Scotland, it’s clear Farage has no serious interest in our country. It would not be unfair to characterise him as an English nationalist, and any commitment he has to the Union is, I fear, simply tactical instead of being born out of any conviction.
If Farage has little interest in Scotland, then Scotland seems to have little enthusiasm for him. According to recent polling by YouGov, the Reform leader has a net favourability rating in Scotland of minus 47, only beaten in unpopularity by Labour’s Keir Starmer.
All this presents a problem for whoever fills the currently vacant position of Reform UK’s leader in Scotland. For the time being, Farage is quite clear that he occupies this role himself, but as we head towards the Scottish Parliament elections in May, there will need to be a Reform spokesperson during that campaign, someone to participate in the televised leaders’ debates and, in the event that Reform are successful at winning seats at Holyrood, someone who will lead from the front bench.
Various names have been bandied around for a potential Reform leader here, including Glasgow councillor Thomas Kerr, former Conservative MSP Graham Simpson, and the high-profile defector Malcolm Offord, Lord Offord of Garvel, who until recently held the position of Scottish Conservative Treasurer. Offord has been quite open with his ambition to take on that leadership role.
Offord an unexpected Faragist
It remains a mystery to me what factor, other than pure ambition, drove Offord to join Reform. Reading his series of self-published policy papers, he appears to be a traditional centre-right Conservative. Indeed, the language he has used in broadcasts and press interviews since his defection makes it clear that the centre-right is where he sees his political positioning.
But that’s a far cry from where either Farage or Reform sit more generally. And that presents a clear threat of conflict between Offord, should he become Scottish leader, and Farage at Westminster.
It was noticeable during Offord’s appearance on BBC’s Question Time earlier this month that he was constantly being pressed on comments that Farage had made, for example on the number of children in Glasgow schools who do not have English as a first language. Far from launching a vigorous defence of Farage as party leader, Offord appeared to be trying to put distance between his views and Farage’s.
Such an approach is neither likely to endear himself to Farage as a potential Scottish lieutenant, nor is it a credible one to take into an election where political opponents can be guaranteed to jump on every unsavoury Farage outburst and use it to challenge his Scottish leader and candidates.
Westminster’s long shadow
The issue that affects all leaders of pro-UK Scottish parties is that they are judged not simply by their own actions, but by what their colleagues in Westminster are doing and saying. Conservatives have experienced this over many years. Whatever the talents of leaders from David McLetchie to Douglas Ross happened to be, there was always a risk of them being undermined by what Conservative leaders and Prime Ministers were doing.
The Liberal Democrats discovered this to their cost in 2011, and Anas Sarwar is currently finding out that, no matter how hard he and his front bench at Holyrood work, their poll ratings are in freefall thanks to public perception of Starmer’s dismal performance as Labour Prime Minister.
Any Reform leader in Scotland is going to face the same issue, with a party which is judged primarily on what Farage does and says, on his attitudes to Scotland, rather than what he or she does here.
A question of loyalty
Nor is there any sign that Farage is willing to relax control. Recent reports from Wales indicate disquiet within Reform ranks there that the selection of candidates on the top of constituency lists will be done solely by Farage himself, bypassing local associations. With current polling suggesting that Reform could win 16 or more seats in the Senedd, each and every one of those would be personally hand-picked by Farage.
If that is what is happening in Wales, we can confidently predict something very similar will happen here. It will be Farage himself that determines who amongst the Reform candidate ranks ends up at Holyrood. And that will leave any potential Reform leader with a team of people behind him whose selection he has not been involved in, and with no reason therefore to owe him or her any loyalty.
All this presents major problems for Reform in Scotland if they are to make progress. For so long as Farage stays in control, the position of Reform UK leader here is going to be a deeply unattractive and unstable one.
Murdo Fraser is a Scottish Conservative MSP for Mid-Scotland and Fife
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