Andy Burnham 'bounce' smaller for Labour in Scotland than rest of UK but PM more popular than John Swinney
Andy Burnham is more popular in Scotland than John Swinney, according to new polling.
Labour’s bounce north of the border since Andy Burnham entered Downing Street has been smaller in Scotland than the rest of the UK as almost half of Scots believe the Prime Minister does not respect the people of Scotland.
Polling by More in Common has found that Scottish Labour is up only by two to four points since May, compared with seven across Britain, as 46 per cent of Scots think Mr Burnham does not respect the people of Scotland.
The polling comes as Mr Burnham is poised to visit Scotland on Friday and Michael Marra was named the new Scottish Labour leader last month.
According to the poll, Mr Burnham is the only party leader in Scotland with a positive net approval rating with 35 per cent believing he is doing a good job, compared to 31 per cent who say he is doing a bad job. But the proportion is slightly worse than in England, where 40 per cent think Burnham is doing a good job, compared to 29 per cent who think he is doing a bad job.
READ MORE: Andy Burnham faces early crucial oil and gas test that will define his leadership in Scotland
Mr Burnham is more popular in Scotland than John Swinney - for whom 30 per cent of Scots say he is doing a good job, and 34 per cent say a bad job.
The poll shows that the SNP’s support in Westminster voting has not moved since the 2024 general election with 30 per cent of the vote, while Labour’s share has dropped by 11 points to 24 per cent in the last two years in Scotland.
The SNP’s position for Holyrood voting intention has not notably changed since the party’s victory in May. Mr Swinney’s party is at 36 per cent on the constituency vote, down two points from May, and 30 per cent on the regional list vote, up three points since May.
Scottish Labour are up two points to 21 per cent on the constituency vote and up four points on the list vote to 20 per cent. While Reform UK have dropped one point on the constituency vote and remain on 17 per cent on the regional list.
The More in Common study shows that the independence debate remains on a knife-edge. According to the polling, 35 per cent think there should be a referendum in the next five years, compared to 18 per cent who think the government should hang fire until a clear majority emerges. Almost a quarter of Scots do not think there should b a re-run of the 2014 referendum at all.
Of those likely to vote in a referendum held tomorrow, 52 per cent would vote to stay in the UK, and 48 per cent would vote for independence.
Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, said: “In some ways, the SNP have reason to feel cheerful heading into their conference. They remain ahead in our new polling, and if elections were held tomorrow, at Holyrood or Westminster, they would come out on top.
“But that lead masks widespread discontent. We called May’s Scottish Parliament election the ‘meh’ election: voters wanted change, felt no party was offering it, and were deeply disillusioned. The SNP has not shaken off that ‘meh’. Three in five Scots still think things are getting worse, and most see the SNP as ‘more of the same’.”
He added: “Nor is the Burnham bounce reshaping Scottish politics the way it has south of the border. Labour’s gains in Scotland are around half the size of its boost across Britain. And while Burnham is more popular in Scotland than John Swinney, almost half of Scots feel he doesn’t respect the people of Scotland.
“For now, the SNP are winning because their opponents are divided, not because their own voters are enthused. The challenge for this conference is to demonstrate they have a clear vision for Scotland, and see if they can get that spark back.”
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